Staying organized while selling your home can feel impossible, especially if you’re buying a new home at the same time. There’s also the pressure to keep your home clean and tidy for showings to prospective buyers. In all the chaos, taking the proper safety precautions can fall by the wayside, but it is something that should be prioritized. Keep these safety tips in mind as you work with your agent to sell your home.
We’ve assembled a comprehensive checklist of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is available as an interactive web page and downloadable PDF here:
Get Ready to Sell Checklist
How to Prepare for an Open House
Open houses are a major driver of buyer interest. Preparing for an open house is a matter of boosting curb appeal, cleaning, and staging to get your home in tip-top shape. It’s vital that you and your agent take certain safety precautions, given that you likely won’t be on sight when the open houses occur. Buyers often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller when touring a home. It also makes it more difficult for them to visualize the space as their own. Accordingly, it’s best to let your agent handle the open house. Here is a helpful list of how to prepare.
Staying Safe When Selling Your Home
Go through your medicine cabinets and remove all prescription medications.
Remove or lock up precious belongings and personal information. You will want to store your jewelry, family heirlooms, and personal/financial information in a secure location to keep them from getting misplaced or stolen.
It is best to remove all family photos during the staging process so potential buyers can see themselves living in the home; it’s also a good way to protect your privacy.
Check that your windows and doors are secure before and after showings. If an intruder is looking to get back into your home following a showing or an open house, they will look for weak locks or unlocked windows and doors.
Consider extra security measures such as an alarm system or other monitoring tools like home security cameras.
Talk to your agent about the following safety precautions:
Perform a thorough walk-through with your agent to make sure you have identified everything that needs to be removed or secured (medications, belongings, photos, etc.)
Go over your agent’s screening process so you are both on the same page about how to qualify buyers before showings.
Lockboxes to secure your keys for showings should be up to date. Electronic lockboxes track who has accessed your home.
Go through your home’s entrances and exits and share important household information so your agent can advise you on how to secure your property while it’s on the market.
From the outside, buying a home may seem like a zero-sum game: the seller relinquishes ownership of a property to the buyer in exchange for money and the buyer becomes the property’s new outright owner. However, there’s more nuance to homeownership than meets the eye. The following homeownership agreements provide alternatives to a traditional home purchase. These options may be right for you when searching for your next home.
Homeownership Terms to Know
Rent-Back Agreement
A rent-back agreement (also known as a sale lease-back) is tailor-made for homeowners who are buying a home while selling their current one. Buying a home and selling a home are both significant undertakings in their own right, but when combined, everything is heightened. For all your planning, successfully executing both transactions is predicated on a variety of factors, including the local market conditions in both places.
A rent-back agreement is a clause in the sales contract that allows the seller to rent their old home from the buyer for an agreed-upon period of time before the buyer moves in. The agreement will include the length of the rental period and the seller’s rental costs, while spelling out the responsibilities of each party during the transition.
These agreements are mutually beneficial to buyers and sellers. Not only do sellers buy themselves time to find their new home, they collect proceeds from the sale of their current one, which can be used to help fund their new home purchase when the time comes. The money collected from sellers’ rent payments is an obvious bonus for buyers. And in a competitive market, making an offer that gives the seller flexibility in their moving timeline may help it stand out amongst the competition.
When two or more people purchase a property together, Joint Tenancy with Right of Survivorship (JTWROS) requires that all co-buyers hold an equal interest in the property and that they all come into ownership through the same title at the same time. If one co-owner dies, ownership passes to the other co-owner—this is known as Right of Survivorship.
This form of co-buying a home presents an opportunity to prospective home buyers who may not yet have the means to purchase a home on their own by combining their buying power with that of their co-buyer. However, entering a real estate transaction with a co-buyer means that you’re financially tied together, which opens the door for added risk.
Tenancy In Common
When co-buyers hold a title as tenants in common, shares of the property can be divided equally or unequally. But even with a disparity in ownership percentage, no one owner may claim sole ownership of the property. When a tenant in common passes away, their ownership is bequeathed to their designated heir.
Tenancy In Severalty
Unlike Joint Tenancy and Tenancy in Common, Tenancy in Severalty represents an agreement in which one individual, corporation, or entity owns the property and does not share ownership with anyone.
There are countless interior design styles to inspire your home décor efforts, but some stand out above the rest. Art Deco is one such style. Though its roots trace back to a specific period, its long-lasting relevance has given it the unique ability to feel vintage, modern, and timeless all at once. Whatever home décor goals you have in mind, going behind the curtain on the history and concepts of Art Deco will help inspire your efforts.
Art Deco Interior Design
Art Deco is a decorative take on modernist style from the early twentieth century. One look at interiors designed in typical Art Deco style immediately brings the elegance of the 1920s and 1930s to mind. Art Deco, like the Mid-Century Modern movement that followed it, went beyond just interior design; it encompassed fashion, architecture, the auto industry, and more. Driven by an appreciation for the modern machines of the time, Art Deco emphasized sophistication in a nontraditional sense.
Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Nikada
Art Deco in Your Home
Art Deco can help to transform your home’s interior, but you don’t have to aim for a level of opulence Jay Gatsby would approve of to reap its rewards. The concepts found in modern adaptations of Art Deco can fit any budget, and the materials used to execute it are widely available.
Art Deco Concepts
Geometry is a cornerstone of Art Deco décor. You’ll often see spaces decorated in this style using geometric shapes like chevrons and sunbursts in parquet wood flooring and tilework. Rounded corners and smooth walls are principal architectural features. Mirrors are also central to an Art Deco aesthetic, helping to create symmetry without taking away from the rest of the room. Framed mirrors and mirror walls alike are popular features.
In the style of modern and minimalist decoration, Art Deco showcases a preference for uncluttered spaces with minimal furniture, letting the decorative elements shine. Optimal furniture pieces often come with mirrored and/or veneer façades, heavy lacquer, rounded edges, and circular designs. Go for bold colors when decorating, working from a neutral base. Silver and gold feel right at home in an Art Deco environment, as do alternative neutrals such as cream and beige.
Common materials include veneer, stainless steel, and chrome. Frames for a gallery wall and tableside lamps are great uses for gold and steel, which are two signature Art Deco materials. Making smaller ornate décor choices such as intricately framed mirrors and accent lighting fixtures will help to create a regal atmosphere while staying within your budget.
It’s common for homeowners to feel compelled to remodel their homes before they sell. Renovating the spaces in your home can increase its value and help you compete with comparable listings in your area. However, some remodeling projects are more beneficial than others as you prepare to sell your home. Always talk to your agent to determine which projects are most appealing to buyers in your area.
Remodeling Projects to Avoid When Selling Your Home
When preparing to sell your home, you want to strike the right balance of upgrades. Making repairs and executing renovations will attract buyer interest, but you don’t want to dump so much cash into remodeling that you won’t be able to recoup those expenses when your home sells.
So, how do you know where to focus your efforts? Your agent is a vital resource in understanding your specific situation and will offer guidance on your remodeling efforts to sell your home for the best price. Here are a few projects sellers will want to keep off their to-do lists for the best return on investment.
Whether you’ve made small cosmetic upgrades throughout your home typically isn’t a make-or-break proposition for most buyers. Let’s say you’re questioning whether to invest in a new toilet, vanity, and shower for your primary bathroom before selling. Unless these appliances are damaged and you can repair them without spending too much, it’s okay to sell as is.
Major Upgrades with Long Timelines
For any remodeling project, your agent’s analysis will help you determine its risk/reward potential. This dynamic is heightened with major remodeling projects and home upgrades, due to their higher costs. Four of the six lowest ROI remodeling projects found in the Remodeling 2022 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com)1 are upscale or major upgrades, all with roughly a 50% return on investment.
These projects come with hefty price tags and longer timelines than minor repairs and upgrades, which can complicate factors as you prepare to sell, especially if you have a deadline to get into your new home. They have the potential to temporarily displace you from the property, meaning you and your household may have to find somewhere else to stay until the project is complete.
The Bottom Line: To go through with a major home upgrade before you sell, its schedule must fit with your moving timeline. It should also align with buyer interest in your local market. If the project doesn’t meet these criteria, it should be avoided.
Building Code Violations
The rules dictating whether you can sell your home with building code violations vary region to region. It also depends on what the building code violation is and whether neglecting to update it is deemed a safety hazard. The buyer’s mortgage lender may also have stipulations saying that the loan may not be used to purchase a home with certain features that aren’t up to code, which could lead to them backing out of the deal.
If you’re selling an older home, you’re not obligated to update every feature that may be out of code to fit modern standards. These projects are often structural and require a significant investment. If the violation in question was built to code according to the regulations at the time, then a grandfather clause typically applies. However, you’ll need to disclose these features to the buyer.
Trendy Makeovers and Upgrades
Lastly, it’s best to avoid remodeling projects that target a specific trend in home design. Trends come and go. Timeless design is a hallmark of marketable homes because it appeals to the widest possible pool of buyers. Keep this in mind when staging your home as well. Creating an environment that’s universally appealing and depersonalized allows buyers to more easily imagine the home as their own.
This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
1. There Is No Housing Bubble
Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.
Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.
2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop
Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.
Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.
3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly
Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.
4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One
With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.
5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic
We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.
6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)
The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.
7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase
Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.
Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.
8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal
Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.
9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue
In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.
Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.
10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously
Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.
But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
Regional Economic Overview
Utah’s economy continues to add jobs. The 53,600 jobs created statewide over the past year represent a growth rate of 3.3%. The counties covered by this report added more than 40,000 new jobs over the past year, which is a growth rate of 3%. The state’s unemployment rate in August was 2%, which is marginally above the all-time low of 1.9% reported in April of this year. The labor force continues to expand, suggesting that the region expects economic growth to remain strong. Even though the state has seen a modest decline in the pace of job growth, the numbers are still very impressive.
Utah Home Sales
❱ In the third quarter, 7,134 homes sold. This was 31.6% fewer sales than a year ago and down 16.1% compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ Year over year, sales fell across the board. Sales in all markets covered by this report were lower than in the second quarter of 2022 as well.
❱ Inventory levels continue to grow, with the average number of homes for sale in the quarter 149% higher than a year ago and up 79% from the second quarter of this year.
❱ Buyers, who seemed to ignore rising mortgage rates in the second quarter, are now feeling the impact of higher financing costs and have taken a pause.
Utah Home Prices
❱ The average home sale price in the third quarter was up 5.9% from a year ago to $627,503. However, prices fell 5.7% compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ Median listing prices in the third quarter were down across the board. Sellers appear to be coming to terms with the fact that the remarkably buoyant market we’ve experienced since the start of the pandemic has now ended.
❱ All areas contained in this report except Morgan County had higher sale prices than a year ago. Compared to the second quarter of this year, only Wasatch County had higher sale prices.
❱ Although the data suggests that a market correction has started, I don’t find this terribly troubling. Homeowners have seen a remarkable run-up in home values over the past couple of years. It was only a matter of time before the market reverted back to a more sustainable pace of price growth.
Mortgage Rates
This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market go through a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.
As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher, but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to slowly pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.
Utah Days on Market
❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose ten days compared to the same period a year ago.
❱ Though homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County, average market time rose in all counties covered by this report year over year. Days on market was also higher in every county compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ During the quarter, it took an average of 33 days to sell a home in the region. Market time rose 15 days compared to the second quarter of 2022.
❱ Rapidly rising inventory levels and mortgage rates have put the brakes on the Utah housing market.
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Although Utah’s economy remains strong, the housing market is now feeling the effects of mortgage rates that were 2.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2021. With rates expected to rise even more in the fourth quarter before hopefully levelling off in early 2023, I anticipate that prices will decline further from their current levels. While this may seem like a dire situation to some, homeowners have seen their equity leap since the pandemic started. Though the expected drop in home values may be disconcerting for owners, it’s necessary for the market to return to more realistic conditions. I expect that some would-be sellers will decide to wait until the market stabilizes before listing their homes, while others will decide not to sell at all. This will limit how far inventory levels will rise. As such, I don’t see the market reaching saturation.
The Utah housing market is in a period of reversion that will bring it back to balance, which is actually positive for the long-term health of the market. Buyers have more choice, but many will wait until financing costs and the market start to stabilize before they resume their search for a home. We still aren’t in a buyer’s market, but we are certainly getting closer to balance. As such, I have moved the needle far closer to the middle.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Pets make a house a home. But as much as you love your furry friends, they do add a few entries to your list of chores. Keeping your home clean requires a bit of extra work, and some methods of upkeep are more pet-friendly than others. The following tips will help you keep your house clean and your pets happy.
5 Pet-Friendly House Cleaning Tips
1. Safely Clean Up Accidents
When pet owners buy a home, they proceed knowing full well that pet accidents and messes are bound to happen. Cleaning up messes quickly is important for keeping your home clean, but it will also remove the scent, so your pets don’t come back to that same area with the same intentions. When shopping around, look for cleaning products that are safe for animals and don’t contain any toxic chemicals.
2. Deep Clean to Reduce Smells
Pets have a knack for leaving a scent behind. Every pet owner knows the feeling of going through their normal cleaning routine to extinguish the pet smell from their home, only for it to linger after they’re done. To really get your home smelling fresh again, you’ll need to target your pets’ favorite areas as well as the commonly missed cleaning spots throughout your home like underneath furniture, along the baseboards, etc. You’ll be surprised at how much dirt and fur you find in these places.
Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Marco VDM
3. Clean Pet Toys Regularly
Your pets’ toys are magnets for dirt, fur, drool, and other unwanted substances. It’s a homeowner’s nightmare to imagine spending hours cleaning your home top to bottom, only for a muddy ball your pets have been chewing on to roll across the carpet. Cleaning toys regularly is also healthier for your pets as it helps to reduce the spread of germs. If your pets’ toys are dishwasher safe, pop them in the dishwasher every once in a while to get them squeaky clean.
4. Keep the Air Clean
Even after you’ve exhausted all your cleaning efforts on the surfaces throughout your home, pet fur and dander can still travel through the air. It’s important to clean the air in your home, especially if members of your household have allergies. Consider investing in an air purifier, which will filter air particles to remove dust and odors, giving everyone in your home—pets included—cleaner air to enjoy.
5. The Importance of Well-Groomed Pets
In the context of a clean, pet-friendly home, there’s one surface that’s more important than any—your pets themselves. Every pet owner has their routine; whether that’s regularly maintaining their cat’s litter box, wiping off the dog’s paws in the mudroom before letting them inside, regular baths and brushing, or keeping nails trimmed to avoid furniture and carpet damage, these are the boxes that must be checked to keep your home clean. For all your cleaning efforts, if your pets are still messy, then the spaces in your home will follow suit.
In what has already been a banner year for the Windermere Foundation, the inaugural Windermere Foundation Gala took things to new heights. Held on the evening of September 30 at the Sheraton Grand in downtown Seattle, Windermere agents, owners, and staff dressed to the nines for a night of live entertainment and fundraising for low-income and homeless families throughout the Western U.S.
With 2022 being Windermere’s 50th anniversary, the company set its sights on reaching $50 million in total donations for the Windermere Foundation by the end of the year. At the end of 2021, the grand total stood at $46 million raised since the Foundation began in 1989, leaving a roughly $4 million gap to reach the $50 million goal. Through the spring and summer, we saw an outpouring of support as Windermere offices around the network stepped up their fundraising and giving efforts. By the end of July, total year-to-date donations surged past $2 million, pushing the grand total to nearly $48 million.
The Windermere Foundation Gala
Then came the night of the Gala, during which the Windermere Foundation would receive the Excellence Award from the 5th Avenue Theatre. Windermere founder John Jacobi and family accepted the award on behalf of Windermere and expressed their commitment to continue their legacy of giving both personally and through the Windermere Foundation. But the Gala was more than a celebration; it was a massive fundraiser, with proceeds from ticket sales, table purchases, donations, and auction bids going back to communities throughout the Windermere footprint.
Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com
As the Gala attendees entered the foyer of the Sheraton Grand Ballroom, they bid on silent auction packages displayed throughout the room. Up for auction were locally curated experiences and goods alike, including multiple-night stays at luxury resorts, tickets to a Broadway production, and more. Next was the live auction. Bids went up for 11 special packages, including a skiing adventure at an upscale resort in Park City, a guided fly-fishing excursion in Montana, and others. As part of an exclusive Pearl Jam auction package, their guitarist Mike McCready was in attendance, adding his signature on stage to an electric guitar signed by the band members.
Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com
Finally, the Gala attendees participated in Raise the Paddle, where they contributed donations at different levels. Windermere founder John Jacobi kickstarted the giving with a $100,000 donation, and from there, auctioneer John Curley guided the audience through descending levels of support, calling out bidder number after bidder number in what was an outpouring of giving from the audience. The Windermere network more than doubled the $250,000 goal of Raise the Paddle, ultimately raising $520,250 in donations.
Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com
In total, the Windermere Foundation Gala raised $1.6 million, catapulting Windermere towards its goal of reaching $50 million in total donations by the end of 2022.
Imagine a home-buying scenario where you make an offer, the seller immediately accepts, and the two of you move through closing without any hiccups until you have keys in hand. It’s possible, but a more likely home buying experience is marked by negotiation, counteroffers, and a back-and-forth dialogue between both parties to reach a deal. And in some cases, the deal can fall through.
Contingencies protect buyers and sellers against these natural characteristics of the home buying process and any problems that may arise before a home sale is finalized. They help to shape a buyer’s offer and can be used strategically to make it more appealing. Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or you’ve bought before, you should be aware of common real estate contingencies and the role they play in making an offer on a home.
Making a Contingent Offer on a Home
After you and the seller agree on the price of a home, both parties have certain duties to finalize the transaction. Buyers are responsible for securing financing, having the home inspected, and getting the property appraised. Sellers are responsible for prioritizing the offer on the table and opening their doors to the home inspector when the time comes. The agreed-upon contingencies included in the contract protect the buyer and seller against any issues that may arise during this time.
Contingencies present a spectrum of options to home buyers, allowing them to walk away from a real estate transaction with their earnest money intact or renegotiate the contract. While their inclusion offers protection and negotiating leverage, sometimes their exclusion can be just as effective.
In a seller’s market, competition amongst buyers is high. Escalation clauses, bidding wars, and all-cash offers become commonplace as potential home buyers compete for a limited number of listings. To sweeten their offers in such market conditions, buyers will typically waive their contingencies. This presents added risk due to a lack of protection, but with so much competition around them, buyers are left with no choice but to maximize their offer’s appeal.
After you’ve made an offer, you’ll have a home inspector thoroughly examine the home before the deal is final. If they discover issues with the property, this contingency allows you and your agent to present the seller with a new offer that accounts for the home’s lessened condition, or to cancel the contract entirely.
Financing Contingency
Also known as a “mortgage contingency,” a financing contingency gives the buyer a specified period of time to secure adequate financing to purchase the home. Even if you are pre-approved for your mortgage, you may not be able to obtain the right loan for the home. If you are unable to finance the purchase, this contingency allows you to back out of the contract and recover your earnest money, and the seller can re-list the home.
Appraisal Contingency
An appraisal contingency states that the home must appraise for, at minimum, the sales price. It allows you to walk away from the deal if the property’s appraised value is lower than the sales price, and typically guarantees that your earnest money will be returned.
Home Sale Contingency
If you’re buying a new home while selling your current one, you may want to include a home sale contingency in your offer. This contingency specifies the date by which you’ll need to sell your current home in order to move forward with your offer. If you don’t sell your home by the specified date, the contract is terminated. Home sale contingencies are financially appealing in that they allow buyers to use the proceeds from their home sale to fund their new home purchase. However, these contingencies force sellers to wait until the buyer’s current home sells, which means they likely won’t accept such offers in competitive markets.
Title Contingency
Before the sale of a home goes final, a search will be performed to ensure that any liens or judgements made against the property have been resolved. A title contingency allows you to raise any issues you may have with the title status of the property and stipulates that the seller must clear these issues up before the transfer of title can be complete. If an unpaid lien or unpaid taxes turn up in the home’s title search, this contingency also allows you to back out of the deal and look for another home.
Give me a call to learn more about preparing a winning offer.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. A little while ago, a housing analyst was being interviewed about the current state of the residential market and they suggested that the country is in a “housing recession.” Well, needless to say, this got a lot of attention from the media and the public at large—for obvious reasons.
Any time the word “recession” is mentioned we almost subliminally cast our minds back to 2007. And when the word “recession” is combined with the word “housing,” then panic starts to set in with flashbacks of headlines about burgeoning housing supply, plummeting home prices, and surging foreclosures.
As this is a topic being discussed by many across the country right now, I wanted to share with you my opinion as to whether the phrase “housing recession” is an appropriate one when describing today’s market.
So, what is a recession? To answer this, I will turn to my trusted Oxford English Dictionary, and this is how they describe that word.
Definition of a Recession
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
Recession:
a difficult time for the economy of a country, when there is less trade and industrial activity than usual, and more people are unemployed
the movement backward of something from a previous position
Well, how do we use these definitions when it comes to the ownership housing market?
I guess that “less trade” could mean lower sales and we have certainly seen sales pull back. “Movement backward” could be how someone might describe the fact that sale prices have been pulling back in many markets across the country.
But although some may say that we really are in a housing recession given the definition of the word, is it really accurate? Are we are inextricably headed down a road that leads to the bursting of some sort of bubble as we all remember from 2007? I don’t believe we are. To explain my thinking let’s start out by looking at housing supply.
Inventory of Homes for Sale
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Yes, listing activity is up—can’t argue with that—with the number of resale homes for sale jumping by more than a third from the start of this year. But there’s more to it than that. You see, we have to look a little further back to better understand what’s really going on.
And to do this, let’s check out the number of homes for sale during the first seven months of this year and compare those numbers to the same periods in 2018 through 2021.
Active Listings By Month
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
I don’t know about you, but this doesn’t look like a chart showing a massively oversupplied market! The number of homes for sale in July of this year was almost exactly the same as we saw last July and is still well below the levels seen in 2018, 2019, or 2020.
Sure, listings are up. But are we at levels that will cause prices to tumble? Remember that it was a massive increase in the number of homes for sale that led to the housing bubble bursting back in 2007. Listings peaked at almost 3.9 million units in 2006; but today there are 2.6 million fewer units on the market than we saw back then. Now that we’ve seen that supply isn’t at concerning levels, let’s look at demand.
Existing Home Sales
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This chart doesn’t look too good. On an annualized basis, sales have been pulling back since the start of the year but that’s not the full story. Let’s look at this in a slightly different way.
Year-to-Date Sales
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
The bars here show year-to-date sales through July—both adjusted and unadjusted for seasonality—and although unadjusted sales so far this year are lower than we saw during the first seven months of 2021, they are at about the same level as we saw in 2018 and are higher than in 2019 or 2020.
But when we adjust the monthly sales data for seasonality, year-to-date sales in 2022 were higher than all years shown here other than 2021.
So, although sales have fallen, it appears to me that we are heading back to a more realistic market rather than one that is hemorrhaging. Yet another indicator we need to consider when examining the market for evidence of some sort of recession are months of inventory , which shows how long it would take to sell every home for sale using the current monthly sales pace.
Months of Inventory
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This graph shows that it would take three months to sell every home on the market given the sales we saw in July. That is quite a jump from the January pace but, again, perspective is everything.
Months of Inventory: Seller’s Market
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
At three months, it is still a seller’s market. It’s generally accepted that the definition of a seller’s market is any number below four months; a balanced market is four to six months of inventory, and a buyer’s market is when the month of inventory is above six.
And a simple bit of math shows us that, for the market to shift from favoring sellers to favoring buyers, the number of homes for sale must break above two million—which we haven’t seen since 2015—and monthly sales would have to drop to below 300,000. We’ve only seen that happen three times in history: November 2008, and again in July and August of 2010.
Yes, listings are up, and sales are down. There’s no denying it. But, again, does the data justify the term recession? My answer would be no. But, if you’re still not convinced, let’s turn our attention to sale prices. I think that might help make things even clearer.
Median U.S. Existing Home Price
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The solid line represents the median sale prices of homes over time and the dotted line shows the trend. You can clearly see that we started breaking away from the trend line in early 2021 and that’s not at all surprising as it started the month after mortgage rates hit their historic all-time low.
But today’s financing costs are significantly higher, and prices have started to slide. Although I certainly expect that we will see sale prices fall further, it appears to me as if they are simply moving back to the long-term trend, and not collapsing.
Mortgage Rate Forecasts
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With mortgage rates doubling from their 2021 lows, downward pressure on sale price was to be expected. But will they—as some think—rise to a level that will cause home prices to plummet? To answer that, here are the forecasts of several associations. You’ll see that all, bar the National Association of Realtors and Freddie Mac, see rates pulling back—albeit modestly—in 2023.
Of course, all these are annual averages and today’s rates are higher with the latest Freddie Mac data showing the average 30-year fixed rate above 6%—a level we haven’t seen since 2008.
However, economists including myself find it unlikely that rates will continue rising significantly from where they are today. The mortgage market is certainly in a bit of disarray right now with the yield curve inverting, but that should correct itself by early next year and that’s why we generally expect rates to start pulling back from their current levels by the start of 2023.
But if rising rates are triggering memories of 2008, you wouldn’t be alone. There are some expecting that the spike in rates will trigger a surge in foreclosures and that will doom the market. But as you see here, although foreclosure filings have certainly risen, they are still remarkably low compared to historic standards.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings
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In the second quarter, newly delinquent mortgages represented just 1.9% of all mortgages outstanding1 and that’s the lowest share the market has seen since 2006. Although I do expect the number of homes being foreclosed on will rise as we move into 2023, I just don’t see it getting to the levels necessary to materially impact the market. And a big part of the reasoning behind my thinking is this:
Equity Rich Households (Q2 2022)
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In the second quarter of 2022, over 48% of homeowners with a mortgage were sitting on more than 50% equity.
Simply put, for enough homeowners to be put in a negative equity situation that would lead them to enter foreclosure and materially damage the market, home prices across the country would have to fall by a percentage greater than we saw during the market crash. And I just don’t see this happening.
The word “recession” has many connotations, and when it’s used to describe the housing market, it can engender a significant level of panic. So, I will ask you all. Given the data I have showed you today, do you think that we are in a housing recession?
Yes, supply levels have risen. But they are still relatively low when compared to historic averages and with builders slowing construction activity to a crawl, it’s unlikely that housing supply will grow much organically. Over the longer term, I believe that the supply of resale homes for sale will remain below historic averages. I say this for one simple reason: mortgage rates.
In 2020, a record number of households refinanced their homes to take advantage of the mortgage rates that had been plummeting. And in 2021, over six million home buyers got mortgages with rates averaging below 3%.
I would suggest to you that we will not see the number of homes for sale even get back to normalized levels in the mid-term, as many potential sellers will decide not to sell, because if they did, they would lose the never seen before and likely never to be seen again mortgage rate that they currently have.
Of course, there will be sellers who have to move because of factors such as job relocation, death, or divorce, but I would contend that listing activity may well be tight for a long time. And if supply remains below the level of demand, the market is further protected.
And as far as demand goes, let’s not forget that the age makeup of the country suggests that we will see a lot more potential buyers as Millennials and Generation Z mature, with current numbers suggesting significant buyer demand for the next two decades.
As for sale prices, I still believe (as do almost all economists) that the median home price next year will be higher than we will see this year, but a very significant drop in the pace of sales growth is likely as we trend down to historic averages.
Of course, all real estate is local and there are markets across the country that will see prices drop in absolute terms. But even in the most highly susceptible markets, it will be a temporary phenomenon. By 2024, homeowners in these markets will see the value of their homes start to rise again.
I’m going to leave you with my quote to describe today’s market today and it’s that we are in a “housing reversion,” NOT a housing recession.
As always, I’d love to hear your comments on my thoughts so feel free to reach out. In the meantime, stay safe out there and I’ll see you all again next month.
1: New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
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