Throughout the home buying process, you’ll encounter several checkpoints. At every stop, you’ll get closer to the ultimate goal of purchasing your next home. Each one satisfies unique criteria required to become a homeowner, and each one has its own terminology. Before you begin your home buying journey, it’s helpful to know about pre-approval, pre-qualification, and proof of funds, and the role they play in a real estate transaction.
Pre-Qualification and Pre-Approval
What is pre-qualification?
Pre-qualification and pre-approval go hand in hand, but one precedes the other. Pre-qualification is a very early step in the home buying process leading to pre-approval. After sharing your financial information with your bank or lender, they’ll give you an estimate of the loan amount you can expect to qualify for. During this time, you’ll learn about the different home loans available to you to help you decide which is best. Pre-qualification usually only takes a few business days.
What is pre-approval?
A sibling to pre-qualification, pre-approval takes things a step further. Once you submit a mortgage application, you’ll provide your lender with the required information to perform a financial background check to assess your creditworthiness. You’ll get a pre-approval letter showing the lender’s offer of a specific loan amount, so you’ll know how much you can borrow. You’ll also get a better understanding of what interest rate you can expect to pay on your loan. Mortgage pre-approvals are typically valid for 60 to 90 days.
Once you’ve gone through the pre-approval process, it’s helpful to know which homes you can afford. Use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price.
Simply put, in real estate, a proof of funds letter is a document that proves to the seller that you have enough money available to purchase the home. Proof of funds letters may vary depending on the terms of the transaction. For example, if you’re making an all-cash offer, your letter will prove that you have enough liquid cash to complete the deal.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Renting vs. Buying a Home
One of my followers asked me about some of the financial benefits of owning your home as opposed to renting. I find this topic interesting as there really is a “laundry list” of reasons that, from a financial standpoint, owning a home is better than renting.
I’m Matthew Gardner Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Let’s get to the topic at hand. Of course, I don’t have time to go through them all today but here are the ones that I think are the most compelling: wealth building and tax benefits.
The Financial Benefits of Homeownership
The first thing to understand is that, over time, a mortgage becomes easier to afford. You see, when you buy a home, the mortgage payments themselves don’t change and, over time, your earnings rise but the mortgage payment doesn’t. Simply put, unlike renters who generally see their rents going up every year, your mortgage payment never will and because you’ll hopefully be making more money as time goes by, the share of your income that you spend on a mortgage payment becomes less & less.
The next advantage to owning your home is that it is a good long-term investment. Of course, some will say that this is not the case because we went through the housing bubble bursting back in 2006 but there have actually been very few times in history when home prices have seen any long-term downward adjustment.
Now I know some will say that investing in stocks would give you a higher long-term return. My response to that would be I’ve never seen anyone living under a stock certificate. Have you?
My next reason for believing that ownership is better than renting is rather simple, and that is because a portion of every mortgage payment you make goes toward reducing the principal amount of the loan. Of course, during a majority of the term of the mortgage most of the payment is going towards interest but, a small portion is paying down the debt itself—in essence making it a forced savings plan, building wealth along the way.
Tax Advantages of Owning a Home
But what about the tax advantages? Owning a home offers unique and substantial ways to save on your taxes every year. Firstly, you can deduct your real estate taxes every year. Now, tax reform has limited the total allowed deduction, but it is still meaningful. You can also deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage. Again, there are some limitations but, depending on where you live you could save a significant amount.
And finally, let’s talk Capital Gains Taxes. When you sell your primary residence and have seen its value grow since you purchased it, up to $250,000 of that profit (if you’re a single person) or $500,000 if you’re married and filing jointly is tax free. Now, this is only true if you meet certain requirements with the biggest one being that you have to have lived in the house for a minimum of two years during the preceding five-year period.
If that’s not enough to convince you that there are very significant advantages to owning a home over renting, I will leave you with one last datapoint that you may find of interest.
Renting vs. Owning a Home: Household Net Worth
Using Federal Reserve data as a base, I’ve been able to calculate the median net worth of a household in America who owned their homes versus a household that rents.
In 2022, the median household wealth of a homeowner household here in America was approximately $330,000.
The median household wealth for a renter household in this country last year was just $8,000.
As you can see, that’s quite the discrepancy between the two. I think it’s very clear that homeownership for a vast majority of families is how they create most of their wealth.
I hope you found this topic of interest. Of course, if you have any questions or comments please do let me know as I do enjoy hearing from you. Take care and I look forward to talking to you all again next month.
Data combined and calculated by Windermere Economics
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The distinct rambler architectural style is known by several names: rambler, ranch house, California ranch, and more. Whatever you call it, it has played an important role in the evolution of the American home. From its spacious interior to its welcoming layout, these homes are tailor-made for a comfortable home life.
History of the Rambler House
It wasn’t until the 1950s and 1960s that the rambler became a staple of domestic American life as the suburban boom reached new heights. The intention behind the architecture was simple: design the perfect post-war American home. The term “rambler” was a reference to the way the single-story design sprawled—or rambled—across the landscape. This home design mirrored the landscape of the American West and allowed for expansive views of surrounding land on a level plain.
Over time, the rambler style began to take on elements of modern design and eventually evolved into split-level homes, creating variants such as “raised ranch style,” “suburban ranch style,” and “storybook rambler.” To this day, these homes are found in great numbers across the country.
Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: pbk-pg
5 Features of Ranch-Style Rambler Homes
1. Low-Pitched Roof and Eaves
Similar to the Craftsman style home, it’s common for ranch-style homes to have low-pitched roofs and overhanging eaves. These architectural features help to give ranch-style homes their distinct sprawling look.
2. Open Floorplan
Ramblers are known for their open interiors that allow for easy movement throughout the home’s horizontal spaces. The spacious layout is often anchored by a central area which creates a feeling a continuity between rooms, a concept that was influenced by modern architecture.
3. One-Story Buildings
Though their wide layouts make for large footprints, the majority of rambler homes are one-story structures. The terms “rambler” and “ranch house” are used interchangeably. However, raised ranch houses and split-level ranch houses will often have a basement, whereas the classic rambler home is a one-story building with a ground-level entry.
4. Attached Garage
This was one of the first architectural styles to incorporate an attached garage into the home design. This evolution in home design perfectly suited the needs of the modern American family in the 1950s and 1960s.
5. Connection to the Outdoors
In another nod to modernist homes, ramblers often prioritized outdoor spaces for entertaining and gathering. This connection to the outdoors is reinforced by large windows and easy access to back patios to create a connection between nature and the home itself.
The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
Regional Economic Overview
Utah’s economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. The state’s unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce.
Utah Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Inventory levels have skyrocketed, with the average number of homes on the market up a remarkable 248% from the same period in 2021. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasn’t surprising given seasonal factors.
❱ Significantly higher inventory levels gave buyers a lot more options than they have become accustomed to. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter.
Utah Home Prices
❱ The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter.
❱ Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%.
❱ The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs.
Mortgage Rates
Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.
My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.
Utah Days on Market
❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021.
❱ Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021.
❱ It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022.
❱ It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same.
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The state’s economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. It’s more likely that as mortgage rates continue to decline, the market will find a solid floor in the summer and prices will resume their upward trend as we move into the fall.
The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. I have moved the needle accordingly.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.
2023 Real Estate Forecast
Existing Home Sales & Forecast
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.
As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.
Annual Change in Median Sale Prices
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.
It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.
But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.
New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand. And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.
New Home Sales Forecast
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.
But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.
As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023
Image Source: Matthew Gardner
You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.
But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.
So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.
I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.
As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Staying organized while selling your home can feel impossible, especially if you’re buying a new home at the same time. There’s also the pressure to keep your home clean and tidy for showings to prospective buyers. In all the chaos, taking the proper safety precautions can fall by the wayside, but it is something that should be prioritized. Keep these safety tips in mind as you work with your agent to sell your home.
We’ve assembled a comprehensive checklist of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is available as an interactive web page and downloadable PDF here:
Get Ready to Sell Checklist
How to Prepare for an Open House
Open houses are a major driver of buyer interest. Preparing for an open house is a matter of boosting curb appeal, cleaning, and staging to get your home in tip-top shape. It’s vital that you and your agent take certain safety precautions, given that you likely won’t be on sight when the open houses occur. Buyers often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller when touring a home. It also makes it more difficult for them to visualize the space as their own. Accordingly, it’s best to let your agent handle the open house. Here is a helpful list of how to prepare.
Staying Safe When Selling Your Home
Go through your medicine cabinets and remove all prescription medications.
Remove or lock up precious belongings and personal information. You will want to store your jewelry, family heirlooms, and personal/financial information in a secure location to keep them from getting misplaced or stolen.
It is best to remove all family photos during the staging process so potential buyers can see themselves living in the home; it’s also a good way to protect your privacy.
Check that your windows and doors are secure before and after showings. If an intruder is looking to get back into your home following a showing or an open house, they will look for weak locks or unlocked windows and doors.
Consider extra security measures such as an alarm system or other monitoring tools like home security cameras.
Talk to your agent about the following safety precautions:
Perform a thorough walk-through with your agent to make sure you have identified everything that needs to be removed or secured (medications, belongings, photos, etc.)
Go over your agent’s screening process so you are both on the same page about how to qualify buyers before showings.
Lockboxes to secure your keys for showings should be up to date. Electronic lockboxes track who has accessed your home.
Go through your home’s entrances and exits and share important household information so your agent can advise you on how to secure your property while it’s on the market.
From the outside, buying a home may seem like a zero-sum game: the seller relinquishes ownership of a property to the buyer in exchange for money and the buyer becomes the property’s new outright owner. However, there’s more nuance to homeownership than meets the eye. The following homeownership agreements provide alternatives to a traditional home purchase. These options may be right for you when searching for your next home.
Homeownership Terms to Know
Rent-Back Agreement
A rent-back agreement (also known as a sale lease-back) is tailor-made for homeowners who are buying a home while selling their current one. Buying a home and selling a home are both significant undertakings in their own right, but when combined, everything is heightened. For all your planning, successfully executing both transactions is predicated on a variety of factors, including the local market conditions in both places.
A rent-back agreement is a clause in the sales contract that allows the seller to rent their old home from the buyer for an agreed-upon period of time before the buyer moves in. The agreement will include the length of the rental period and the seller’s rental costs, while spelling out the responsibilities of each party during the transition.
These agreements are mutually beneficial to buyers and sellers. Not only do sellers buy themselves time to find their new home, they collect proceeds from the sale of their current one, which can be used to help fund their new home purchase when the time comes. The money collected from sellers’ rent payments is an obvious bonus for buyers. And in a competitive market, making an offer that gives the seller flexibility in their moving timeline may help it stand out amongst the competition.
When two or more people purchase a property together, Joint Tenancy with Right of Survivorship (JTWROS) requires that all co-buyers hold an equal interest in the property and that they all come into ownership through the same title at the same time. If one co-owner dies, ownership passes to the other co-owner—this is known as Right of Survivorship.
This form of co-buying a home presents an opportunity to prospective home buyers who may not yet have the means to purchase a home on their own by combining their buying power with that of their co-buyer. However, entering a real estate transaction with a co-buyer means that you’re financially tied together, which opens the door for added risk.
Tenancy In Common
When co-buyers hold a title as tenants in common, shares of the property can be divided equally or unequally. But even with a disparity in ownership percentage, no one owner may claim sole ownership of the property. When a tenant in common passes away, their ownership is bequeathed to their designated heir.
Tenancy In Severalty
Unlike Joint Tenancy and Tenancy in Common, Tenancy in Severalty represents an agreement in which one individual, corporation, or entity owns the property and does not share ownership with anyone.
There are countless interior design styles to inspire your home décor efforts, but some stand out above the rest. Art Deco is one such style. Though its roots trace back to a specific period, its long-lasting relevance has given it the unique ability to feel vintage, modern, and timeless all at once. Whatever home décor goals you have in mind, going behind the curtain on the history and concepts of Art Deco will help inspire your efforts.
Art Deco Interior Design
Art Deco is a decorative take on modernist style from the early twentieth century. One look at interiors designed in typical Art Deco style immediately brings the elegance of the 1920s and 1930s to mind. Art Deco, like the Mid-Century Modern movement that followed it, went beyond just interior design; it encompassed fashion, architecture, the auto industry, and more. Driven by an appreciation for the modern machines of the time, Art Deco emphasized sophistication in a nontraditional sense.
Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Nikada
Art Deco in Your Home
Art Deco can help to transform your home’s interior, but you don’t have to aim for a level of opulence Jay Gatsby would approve of to reap its rewards. The concepts found in modern adaptations of Art Deco can fit any budget, and the materials used to execute it are widely available.
Art Deco Concepts
Geometry is a cornerstone of Art Deco décor. You’ll often see spaces decorated in this style using geometric shapes like chevrons and sunbursts in parquet wood flooring and tilework. Rounded corners and smooth walls are principal architectural features. Mirrors are also central to an Art Deco aesthetic, helping to create symmetry without taking away from the rest of the room. Framed mirrors and mirror walls alike are popular features.
In the style of modern and minimalist decoration, Art Deco showcases a preference for uncluttered spaces with minimal furniture, letting the decorative elements shine. Optimal furniture pieces often come with mirrored and/or veneer façades, heavy lacquer, rounded edges, and circular designs. Go for bold colors when decorating, working from a neutral base. Silver and gold feel right at home in an Art Deco environment, as do alternative neutrals such as cream and beige.
Common materials include veneer, stainless steel, and chrome. Frames for a gallery wall and tableside lamps are great uses for gold and steel, which are two signature Art Deco materials. Making smaller ornate décor choices such as intricately framed mirrors and accent lighting fixtures will help to create a regal atmosphere while staying within your budget.
It’s common for homeowners to feel compelled to remodel their homes before they sell. Renovating the spaces in your home can increase its value and help you compete with comparable listings in your area. However, some remodeling projects are more beneficial than others as you prepare to sell your home. Always talk to your agent to determine which projects are most appealing to buyers in your area.
Remodeling Projects to Avoid When Selling Your Home
When preparing to sell your home, you want to strike the right balance of upgrades. Making repairs and executing renovations will attract buyer interest, but you don’t want to dump so much cash into remodeling that you won’t be able to recoup those expenses when your home sells.
So, how do you know where to focus your efforts? Your agent is a vital resource in understanding your specific situation and will offer guidance on your remodeling efforts to sell your home for the best price. Here are a few projects sellers will want to keep off their to-do lists for the best return on investment.
Whether you’ve made small cosmetic upgrades throughout your home typically isn’t a make-or-break proposition for most buyers. Let’s say you’re questioning whether to invest in a new toilet, vanity, and shower for your primary bathroom before selling. Unless these appliances are damaged and you can repair them without spending too much, it’s okay to sell as is.
Major Upgrades with Long Timelines
For any remodeling project, your agent’s analysis will help you determine its risk/reward potential. This dynamic is heightened with major remodeling projects and home upgrades, due to their higher costs. Four of the six lowest ROI remodeling projects found in the Remodeling 2022 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com)1 are upscale or major upgrades, all with roughly a 50% return on investment.
These projects come with hefty price tags and longer timelines than minor repairs and upgrades, which can complicate factors as you prepare to sell, especially if you have a deadline to get into your new home. They have the potential to temporarily displace you from the property, meaning you and your household may have to find somewhere else to stay until the project is complete.
The Bottom Line: To go through with a major home upgrade before you sell, its schedule must fit with your moving timeline. It should also align with buyer interest in your local market. If the project doesn’t meet these criteria, it should be avoided.
Building Code Violations
The rules dictating whether you can sell your home with building code violations vary region to region. It also depends on what the building code violation is and whether neglecting to update it is deemed a safety hazard. The buyer’s mortgage lender may also have stipulations saying that the loan may not be used to purchase a home with certain features that aren’t up to code, which could lead to them backing out of the deal.
If you’re selling an older home, you’re not obligated to update every feature that may be out of code to fit modern standards. These projects are often structural and require a significant investment. If the violation in question was built to code according to the regulations at the time, then a grandfather clause typically applies. However, you’ll need to disclose these features to the buyer.
Trendy Makeovers and Upgrades
Lastly, it’s best to avoid remodeling projects that target a specific trend in home design. Trends come and go. Timeless design is a hallmark of marketable homes because it appeals to the widest possible pool of buyers. Keep this in mind when staging your home as well. Creating an environment that’s universally appealing and depersonalized allows buyers to more easily imagine the home as their own.
This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
1. There Is No Housing Bubble
Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.
Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.
2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop
Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.
Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.
3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly
Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.
4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One
With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.
5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic
We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.
6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)
The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.
7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase
Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.
Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.
8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal
Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.
9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue
In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.
Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.
10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously
Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.
But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
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