Selling • April 3, 2023

8 Tips for First-Time Home Sellers

by Gary Peterson

A heterosexual Hispanic couple smiles with their real estate agent looking at his tablet as they work together to sell their home. They are first-time home sellers. They all stand in a staged living room next to a window.

You’ve seen “For Sale” signs around your neighborhood, but what does it take to actually put your home on the market? First-time home sellers often enter the selling process unaware of what’s to come, their heads full of questions. Understanding the selling process will inform your conversations with your real estate agent and will help you stay organized and on schedule as you sell your home for the first time.

8 Tips for First-Time Home Sellers

1. Know the Costs of Selling a Home

Though you’ll eventually walk away from the sale of your home with a lump sum in your pocket, the selling process isn’t without its costs. Real estate agent commission costs typically account for five to six percent of the sale price, but they’re not the only expense you’ll encounter on your selling journey. Between repairs, home upgrades, staging, escrow fees, Capital Gains Tax and more, it’s important to budget for these costs before listing your home.

2. Find the Right Agent

A successful selling experience starts by working with a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents specialize in keeping up with local market conditions, they have the tools to competitively price your home, and they understand what is driving buyer interest in your area. But beyond these qualities, it’s important that first-time home sellers choose an agent who understands their goals and cares about their happiness. Selling a home can be an emotional roller coaster and having a trusted expert beside you will help you navigate its ups and downs.

3. The Importance of Home Staging

Whether you hire a professional or decide to stage your home yourself, what’s important is that you make the commitment. Staging your home creates universal appeal, capturing the attention of the widest possible buyer pool. If your interior is too personalized, it makes it harder for buyers to see themselves in your home. Staging makes financial sense as well, as it often equates to higher sales prices. According to a 2020 survey performed by the Real Estate Staging Association (RESA®), of the 13,000 homes surveyed, 85% of staged homes sold for 5-23% over list price.¹

4. High ROI Remodeling Projects

Remodeling projects cost a significant amount of money; there’s no way around it. This is where your agent’s expertise can help you spend wisely: they can inform you of which home features and upgrades are driving buyer interest in your area. Target the high ROI remodeling projects that increase home value to get the most bang for your buck and know which remodeling projects to avoid when selling your home.

A young Caucasian man lays on his back in a bathroom with white hexagon tile flooring and white subway tile walls. A first-time home seller, he uses a wrench to turn the drainpipe under the bathroom sink as he prepares to sell his home.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Hispanolistic

5. Pre-Listing Inspection

Anything that could potentially give your home a competitive advantage over other listings is worth discussing with your agent. One such strategy is conducting a pre-listing inspection before putting your home on the market. Not only do pre-listing inspections give sellers a better understanding of what repairs may be in order, but they also streamline the selling process by transparently disclosing the details of a property’s condition to the buyer. These reports are especially helpful in competitive markets, since buyers are more likely to waive inspections.

6. How to Price Your Home

Of all the information coming at you during the selling process, you’ll likely have your mind set on getting the best price for your home. Determining home value is one area where real estate agents excel; their Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) will help them set an accurate and competitive figure. It’s important to separate your emotional attachment to your home from your agent’s calculations. In your mind, your home possesses a certain value, but that may not match what it can realistically fetch on the market. Sometimes it may be even more than you thought!

7. Safety Tips for Open Houses

The more buyer interest you’re able to drum up, the better. Open houses play an important role in the selling process in that they allow buyers to experience the property firsthand. Making this connection requires opening your doors to strangers, which is cause for taking the appropriate safety measures. Remove all prescriptions from your medicine cabinets, lock up precious belongings and personal information, make sure all doors and windows are locked at the end of each day, and discuss your buyer screening process with your agent so you’re on the same page.

8. Moving Timeline

The planning doesn’t stop once you’ve sold your home. Before the ink is dry on your real estate contract, your gears will be turning about how to efficiently move into your new home. We’ve created an interactive Moving Checklist with a step-by-step guide to the moving process, from twelve weeks before moving day all the way up until you make your move. The list is also available as an interactive web page and downloadable PDF here:

For more information on the selling process from list to closing, visit our comprehensive selling guide here:

1: Real Estate Staging Association (RESA®). “The Consumer’s Guide to Real Estate Staging.” Realestatestagingassociation.com. 2020.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • March 28, 2023

Will Rising Foreclosures Impact the Housing Market?

by Gary Peterson

How will rising foreclosures impact the U.S. housing market? To give his answer, Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner sheds light on the latest foreclosure data and shows how prepared home buyers are to manage their mortgage debt today compared to the 2000s.

This video on foreclosures is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Rising U.S. Foreclosures

The market has certainly shifted since mortgage rates started skyrocketing last year and, with prices pulling back across much of the country, some have started to become concerned about the likelihood of foreclosures rising—clearly a timely topic given current circumstances.

Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and for this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew, I pulled the latest data on foreclosure starts and looked and the quality of mortgages that have been given to buyers in order to give you a clear idea of how foreclosures will impact the overall housing market.

For the purposes of this exercise, I’m going to concentrate on foreclosure starts rather than foreclosure filings because data shows us that a majority of homeowners where a foreclosure filing has been submitted to a court by their lender are able to avoid it by refinancing or selling the home, which makes total sense as over 93% of owners in the U.S. have positive equity.

U.S. Foreclosures: Starts 2007-2022

A bar graph showing U.S. foreclosures starts from 2007 to 2022. The numbers spiked in 2009 at over 2 million foreclosure starts and gradually decreased every year until 2022, where the numbers increased from 2021. Though they were 181% higher in 2022 than in 2021, it’s important to note that foreclosure starts in 2022 were 31% lower than 2019 and 88% lower than the 2009 peak.

As you can see here, foreclosure starts rose significantly last year. In fact, they were 181% higher than in 2021. But if we zoom out, it’s important to note that foreclosure starts were 31% lower than 2019 and 88% lower than the 2009 peak.

Am I surprised at the increase in foreclosure starts? Not really. The forbearance program was put in place at the start of the pandemic, and it allowed homeowners to temporarily stop making mortgage payments and not be foreclosed on, but that program ended 18 months ago.

And, although a vast majority of the 4.7 million households who entered the program have left it and sold or refinanced their homes, there were always going to be some who were not able to, and this has led to the overall foreclosure activity rising. Let’s take a closer look.

U.S. Foreclosures in 2022

A map showing foreclosures starts for each state in the U.S. California, Texas, and Florida have the highest number of foreclosure starts inn 2022. California had 27,541, Florida had 24,190, and Texas had 23,151.

This is a heat map of foreclosure starts by state. And you can see that California, Florida, and Texas saw the highest numbers in 2022. But remember that these are the states that have the greatest number of homes with mortgages so, statistically, we would expect the total number of homes in foreclosure in those states would be higher than the rest of the country. That said, foreclosure starts were significantly higher in Florida, California, Texas, and New York than they were in 2019, the last “pre-COVID” year and before the forbearance program started.

And when we look more myopically, metro areas including New York/New Jersey, Washington DC, the Delaware Valley, Atlanta, Miami, Baltimore, and Dallas all saw total foreclosure starts rise well above what they were in 2019. This may suggest that there are some markets that could see foreclosure activity rise to a level that could materially impact housing in those locations.

But looking at the country as a whole, there are other factors leading me to believe that we will not see the number of homes entering foreclosure rising above the long-term average, and certainly not sufficient to have a material impact on U.S. housing prices.

Let me show you what’s happening on the mortgage side of things. First: credit quality.

Median FICO Scores for New Mortgages 2003-2022

A line graph showing the median FICO scores for new mortgages from Q1 2003 through Q3 2022. The median FICO score generally decreased from 2003 to the low of 707 during 2007, then gradually increased throughout the years 2008-2022. The median FICO score inn Q3 2022 was 766.

The median FICO score for new mortgages was 766 in the 4^th quarter of 2022. Yes, this is down from the peak seen in early 2021 when it was a whopping 788 but as shown here, it’s far higher than we saw before the housing crisis. Buyers over the past several years had very good credit and, given the tight labor market, we are certainly in a very different place than back before the housing bubble burst.

Mortgage Debt Payments Percentages 2007-2022

A line graph showing mortgage debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income for home buyers from Q1 2007 through Q3 2022. In 2007, mortgage debt payments were around 7% of disposable personal income, in Q3 2022 it was 3.99%. Between those two points in time, the percentage gradually and consistently decreased.

Secondly, buyers are using larger down payments than in the mid-2000’s, and with the historically low mortgage rates that we saw during the first two years of the pandemic benefitting new buyers as well as allowing existing homeowners to refinance, the share of disposable income that is used to cover mortgage payments remains very low. This basically means that owners aren’t as burdened by their house payments as they were in 2007-2009. And finally…

Equity Rich Households Q4 2022

A map showing the percentage of equity rich households for each state in Q4 2022. The highest values are Vermont at 76.6%, Florida at roughly 62%, and California at 61.5%.

With the significant run-up in housing values that we have seen over the past few years, 48% of all homeowners with a mortgage have more than 50% equity. Although this share has pulled back a little as mortgage rates rose and values pulled back, it’s still a massive amount of money and, as I mentioned earlier, many homeowners who are faced with foreclosure will end up selling their homes as they still have positive equity rather than go through the foreclosure process.

So, my answer to those of you wondering if we will see foreclosures rise to a level that could impact the overall housing market is “no.”

I don’t see any reason to believe that distressed sales will hurt the market in general, but I will say that there are some local markets where distressed sales could rise to levels that could act as a headwind to price growth in these areas. As always, I’d love to get your thoughts on this topic so please comment below! Until next month, take care and I will see you all soon. Bye now.

To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.

About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Living • March 21, 2023

7 Tips for Cleaning Your Appliances

by Gary Peterson

A young Caucasian woman wears yellow rubber gloves as she cleans her glass stovetop in her kitchen. The kitchen has white cabinets, white backsplash, and is minimally decorated with a couple cutting boards on the counter.

Your appliances help your home run like a well-oiled machine. But without the proper cleaning and maintenance, they can make your life more complicated. When thinking about the most helpful cleaning tips around the house, we often center our efforts on open, high-foot-traffic areas. However, spending some time cleaning your appliances will have your home feeling fresher than ever.

7 Tips for Cleaning Your Appliances

1. Cleaning Your Refrigerator

Your refrigerator is the lifeblood of your food supply. A clean refrigerator equates to fresher food and a healthier household. Start by clearing the shelves and bins so you can access the tough-to-reach spots and corners. Wipe everything down with soap and warm water or try an equal-parts mixture of vinegar and water as a cleaning solution. This is also a good time to reorganize your refrigerator to cut down on food waste.

2. How to Clean Your Microwave

One simple cleaning hack can have your microwave looking brand new. Fill a microwave-safe bowl or container with water and heat it up until it starts to boil. Turn off the microwave and let the heated water sit for at least five minutes, then safely remove it. By heating up the water, the food particles caked on the walls of your microwave will be much easier to wipe away. To eliminate germs, disinfect your microwave’s handle and buttons.

3. Espresso Machine / Coffee Maker

If your coffee maker is kaput, your whole morning routine gets thrown off. Whether you use a stovetop coffee maker, French press, espresso machine, or a good old coffee pot, performing regular maintenance will decrease bacteria and mold growth. Periodically separate the removable parts of your coffee maker and wash them thoroughly with warm soap and water. If you have a coffee press, run the parts through the dishwasher occasionally to prevent buildup in the mesh.

A closeup shot of a person’s hands. Wearing yellow rubber gloves, they clean the face of an electric stove and oven range.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: kirstyokeeffe

4. Dishwasher Cleaning Tips

If your dishwasher isn’t clean, your dishes won’t be either. Get it in pristine condition with a few simple cleaning tips. After cleaning all food scraps and gunk from the drain, wipe down the gaskets with warm soapy water. Though there are a variety of dishwasher cleaning products available, you can give your appliance a thorough deep cleaning with vinegar and baking soda. Fill a dishwasher safe container with one to two cups of vinegar and place it in the top rack. Run a cycle without dishwasher detergent nor other dishes. Once the cycle is complete, sprinkle roughly a cup of baking soda along the bottom rack and run another cycle.

5. How to Clean Your Stove Top

No matter how tidy you are as you cook your stove top will collect debris and buildup from splattering oil, butter, and food particles. Throw on some rubber gloves and get ready to give it some elbow grease. Soaking food buildup with warm water will break it down and make cleanup easier. Use a hard plastic scraper to get gas or electric stove tops totally clean, and use a warm, soapy sponge to make your glass top range sparkle. If your stove has removable burners, remove them and soak them in water to make them shine like new.

6. Cleaning Your Washing Machine

Seeing stains in your freshly washed loads of laundry? It’s time to give your washing machine some TLC. Fortunately, your washing machine can do most of the cleaning work itself. Add a little vinegar to the drum and run a cycle on your machine’s hottest setting. Many newer models come with self-cleaning features and higher energy efficiency ratings to save water on each load.

7. Dryer Cleaning Tips

Don’t forget about your dryer, too! Dryer maintenance is largely a matter of cleaning out the lint traps regularly (after each use) and vacuuming the mesh. Without proper maintenance, your dryer can get clogged, leaving your washed clothes damp. And if enough dryer lint builds up, it could start a fire.

Buyers • March 7, 2023

Homeownership Terms to Know: Pre-Approval, Pre-Qualification & More

by Gary Peterson

A young Black heterosexual couple shakes hands with a Caucasian real estate agent after they have gone through pre-approval for a mortgage to buy a house.

Throughout the home buying process, you’ll encounter several checkpoints. At every stop, you’ll get closer to the ultimate goal of purchasing your next home. Each one satisfies unique criteria required to become a homeowner, and each one has its own terminology. Before you begin your home buying journey, it’s helpful to know about pre-approval, pre-qualification, and proof of funds, and the role they play in a real estate transaction.

Pre-Qualification and Pre-Approval

What is pre-qualification?

Pre-qualification and pre-approval go hand in hand, but one precedes the other. Pre-qualification is a very early step in the home buying process leading to pre-approval. After sharing your financial information with your bank or lender, they’ll give you an estimate of the loan amount you can expect to qualify for. During this time, you’ll learn about the different home loans available to you to help you decide which is best. Pre-qualification usually only takes a few business days.

What is pre-approval?

A sibling to pre-qualification, pre-approval takes things a step further. Once you submit a mortgage application, you’ll provide your lender with the required information to perform a financial background check to assess your creditworthiness. You’ll get a pre-approval letter showing the lender’s offer of a specific loan amount, so you’ll know how much you can borrow. You’ll also get a better understanding of what interest rate you can expect to pay on your loan. Mortgage pre-approvals are typically valid for 60 to 90 days.

Once you’ve gone through the pre-approval process, it’s helpful to know which homes you can afford. Use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price.

A close up shot of a real estate agent presenting a pre-approval mortgage agreement to their client. There is a calculator, a key, and a small model of a house on the real estate agent’s desk.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Thitiphat Khuankaew

What is a proof of funds letter?

Simply put, in real estate, a proof of funds letter is a document that proves to the seller that you have enough money available to purchase the home. Proof of funds letters may vary depending on the terms of the transaction. For example, if you’re making an all-cash offer, your letter will prove that you have enough liquid cash to complete the deal.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • February 28, 2023

Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Financial Benefits of Homeownership

by Gary Peterson

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Renting vs. Buying a Home

One of my followers asked me about some of the financial benefits of owning your home as opposed to renting. I find this topic interesting as there really is a “laundry list” of reasons that, from a financial standpoint, owning a home is better than renting.

I’m Matthew Gardner Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Let’s get to the topic at hand. Of course, I don’t have time to go through them all today but here are the ones that I think are the most compelling: wealth building and tax benefits.

The Financial Benefits of Homeownership

The first thing to understand is that, over time, a mortgage becomes easier to afford. You see, when you buy a home, the mortgage payments themselves don’t change and, over time, your earnings rise but the mortgage payment doesn’t. Simply put, unlike renters who generally see their rents going up every year, your mortgage payment never will and because you’ll hopefully be making more money as time goes by, the share of your income that you spend on a mortgage payment becomes less & less.

The next advantage to owning your home is that it is a good long-term investment. Of course, some will say that this is not the case because we went through the housing bubble bursting back in 2006 but there have actually been very few times in history when home prices have seen any long-term downward adjustment.

Now I know some will say that investing in stocks would give you a higher long-term return. My response to that would be I’ve never seen anyone living under a stock certificate. Have you?

My next reason for believing that ownership is better than renting is rather simple, and that is because a portion of every mortgage payment you make goes toward reducing the principal amount of the loan. Of course, during a majority of the term of the mortgage most of the payment is going towards interest but, a small portion is paying down the debt itself—in essence making it a forced savings plan, building wealth along the way.

Tax Advantages of Owning a Home

But what about the tax advantages? Owning a home offers unique and substantial ways to save on your taxes every year. Firstly, you can deduct your real estate taxes every year. Now, tax reform has limited the total allowed deduction, but it is still meaningful. You can also deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage. Again, there are some limitations but, depending on where you live you could save a significant amount.

And finally, let’s talk Capital Gains Taxes. When you sell your primary residence and have seen its value grow since you purchased it, up to $250,000 of that profit (if you’re a single person) or $500,000 if you’re married and filing jointly is tax free. Now, this is only true if you meet certain requirements with the biggest one being that you have to have lived in the house for a minimum of two years during the preceding five-year period.

If that’s not enough to convince you that there are very significant advantages to owning a home over renting, I will leave you with one last datapoint that you may find of interest.

Renting vs. Owning a Home: Household Net Worth

Using Federal Reserve data as a base, I’ve been able to calculate the median net worth of a household in America who owned their homes versus a household that rents.

In 2022, the median household wealth of a homeowner household here in America was approximately $330,000.
The median household wealth for a renter household in this country last year was just $8,000.

As you can see, that’s quite the discrepancy between the two. I think it’s very clear that homeownership for a vast majority of families is how they create most of their wealth.

I hope you found this topic of interest. Of course, if you have any questions or comments please do let me know as I do enjoy hearing from you. Take care and I look forward to talking to you all again next month.

Data combined and calculated by Windermere Economics

About Matthew Gardner

Design • February 20, 2023

What is a Rambler House? 5 Features of Ranch-Style Architecture

by Gary Peterson

A white rambler home with a large tree in the front yard.

The distinct rambler architectural style is known by several names: rambler, ranch house, California ranch, and more. Whatever you call it, it has played an important role in the evolution of the American home. From its spacious interior to its welcoming layout, these homes are tailor-made for a comfortable home life.

History of the Rambler House

It wasn’t until the 1950s and 1960s that the rambler became a staple of domestic American life as the suburban boom reached new heights. The intention behind the architecture was simple: design the perfect post-war American home. The term “rambler” was a reference to the way the single-story design sprawled—or rambled—across the landscape. This home design mirrored the landscape of the American West and allowed for expansive views of surrounding land on a level plain.

Over time, the rambler style began to take on elements of modern design and eventually evolved into split-level homes, creating variants such as “raised ranch style,” “suburban ranch style,” and “storybook rambler.” To this day, these homes are found in great numbers across the country.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: pbk-pg

5 Features of Ranch-Style Rambler Homes

1. Low-Pitched Roof and Eaves

Similar to the Craftsman style home, it’s common for ranch-style homes to have low-pitched roofs and overhanging eaves. These architectural features help to give ranch-style homes their distinct sprawling look.

2. Open Floorplan

Ramblers are known for their open interiors that allow for easy movement throughout the home’s horizontal spaces. The spacious layout is often anchored by a central area which creates a feeling a continuity between rooms, a concept that was influenced by modern architecture.

3. One-Story Buildings

Though their wide layouts make for large footprints, the majority of rambler homes are one-story structures. The terms “rambler” and “ranch house” are used interchangeably. However, raised ranch houses and split-level ranch houses will often have a basement, whereas the classic rambler home is a one-story building with a ground-level entry.

4. Attached Garage

This was one of the first architectural styles to incorporate an attached garage into the home design. This evolution in home design perfectly suited the needs of the modern American family in the 1950s and 1960s.

5. Connection to the Outdoors

In another nod to modernist homes, ramblers often prioritized outdoor spaces for entertaining and gathering. This connection to the outdoors is reinforced by large windows and easy access to back patios to create a connection between nature and the home itself.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • February 6, 2023

Q4 2022 Utah Real Estate Market Update

by Gary Peterson

The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Utah’s economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. The state’s unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce.

Utah Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Inventory levels have skyrocketed, with the average number of homes on the market up a remarkable 248% from the same period in 2021. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasn’t surprising given seasonal factors.

❱ Significantly higher inventory levels gave buyers a lot more options than they have become accustomed to. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Utah from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Morgan at -17.4%, Davis at -37.4%, Weber at -41.9%, Wasatch at -45.5%, Utah County at -46.5%, Salt Lake at -46.7%, and Summit at -49.1%.

Utah Home Prices

❱ The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter.

❱ Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%.

❱ The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Utah. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Summit and Morgan have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -4.1% range, Davis is in the -1.5% to 0.9% change range, Weber, Salt Lake, and Wasatch are in the 1% to 3.4% range, and Utah is in the 3.5%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Utah from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. Utah County tops the list at 4%, followed by Wasatch at 2.8%, Weber at 2.4%, Salt Lake at 2.0%, Davis at 0.3%, Summit at -4.7%, and Morgan at -6.4%.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Utah Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021.

❱ Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022.

❱ It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Utah for Q4 2022. Salt Lake County has the lowest DOM at 44, followed by Weber and Davis at 49, Utah at 52, Wasatch at 58, Morgan at 62, and Summit at 70.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The state’s economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. It’s more likely that as mortgage rates continue to decline, the market will find a solid floor in the summer and prices will resume their upward trend as we move into the fall.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market in Utah in Q4 2022.

The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. I have moved the needle accordingly.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

Market News • Matthew Gardner • January 23, 2023

2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008

by Gary Peterson

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.

2023 Real Estate Forecast

Existing Home Sales & Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.

As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.

Annual Change in Median Sale Prices

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.

It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.

But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.

New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph of the single-family new home starts. The y-axis shows numbers in thousands from 0 to 1,200 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The numbers are as follows: 715 in 2015, 782 in 2016, 849 in 2017, 876 in 2018, 888 in 2019, 991 in 2020, 1,127 in 2021, 1,009 (forecasted) in 2022, and 837 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand. And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.

New Home Sales Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.

But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.

As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.

But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.

So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.

I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.

As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.

About Matthew Gardner

Selling • January 9, 2023

Staying Safe When Selling Your Home

by Gary Peterson

A real estate agent hosts an open house in a new construction home. Two families of prospective buyers listen to him describe the home’s features. There are platters of snacks on a table in the living room.

Staying organized while selling your home can feel impossible, especially if you’re buying a new home at the same time. There’s also the pressure to keep your home clean and tidy for showings to prospective buyers. In all the chaos, taking the proper safety precautions can fall by the wayside, but it is something that should be prioritized. Keep these safety tips in mind as you work with your agent to sell your home.

We’ve assembled a comprehensive checklist of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is available as an interactive web page and downloadable PDF here:

Get Ready to Sell Checklist

How to Prepare for an Open House

Open houses are a major driver of buyer interest. Preparing for an open house is a matter of boosting curb appeal, cleaning, and staging to get your home in tip-top shape. It’s vital that you and your agent take certain safety precautions, given that you likely won’t be on sight when the open houses occur. Buyers often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller when touring a home. It also makes it more difficult for them to visualize the space as their own. Accordingly, it’s best to let your agent handle the open house. Here is a helpful list of how to prepare.

Staying Safe When Selling Your Home

Go through your medicine cabinets and remove all prescription medications.
Remove or lock up precious belongings and personal information. You will want to store your jewelry, family heirlooms, and personal/financial information in a secure location to keep them from getting misplaced or stolen.
It is best to remove all family photos during the staging process so potential buyers can see themselves living in the home; it’s also a good way to protect your privacy.
Check that your windows and doors are secure before and after showings. If an intruder is looking to get back into your home following a showing or an open house, they will look for weak locks or unlocked windows and doors.
Consider extra security measures such as an alarm system or other monitoring tools like home security cameras.

A real estate agent performs a walkthrough of a new home for a prospective buyer. The agent leads the buyer through the open kitchen/dining room area. The home has dark hardwood floors and geometric wallpaper along the kitchen island.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: ferrantraite

Talk to your agent about the following safety precautions:

Perform a thorough walk-through with your agent to make sure you have identified everything that needs to be removed or secured (medications, belongings, photos, etc.)
Go over your agent’s screening process so you are both on the same page about how to qualify buyers before showings.
Lockboxes to secure your keys for showings should be up to date. Electronic lockboxes track who has accessed your home.
Go through your home’s entrances and exits and share important household information so your agent can advise you on how to secure your property while it’s on the market.

Buyers • December 27, 2022

Homeownership Terms to Know: Rent-Back Agreement, Joint Tenancy & More

by Gary Peterson

A real estate agent and a home buyer have a meeting to go over the contract of a home purchase. The real estate agent takes notes while the buyer points to a calculator as they sort through the terms of the transaction.

From the outside, buying a home may seem like a zero-sum game: the seller relinquishes ownership of a property to the buyer in exchange for money and the buyer becomes the property’s new outright owner. However, there’s more nuance to homeownership than meets the eye. The following homeownership agreements provide alternatives to a traditional home purchase. These options may be right for you when searching for your next home.

Homeownership Terms to Know

Rent-Back Agreement

A rent-back agreement (also known as a sale lease-back) is tailor-made for homeowners who are buying a home while selling their current one. Buying a home and selling a home are both significant undertakings in their own right, but when combined, everything is heightened. For all your planning, successfully executing both transactions is predicated on a variety of factors, including the local market conditions in both places.

A rent-back agreement is a clause in the sales contract that allows the seller to rent their old home from the buyer for an agreed-upon period of time before the buyer moves in. The agreement will include the length of the rental period and the seller’s rental costs, while spelling out the responsibilities of each party during the transition.

These agreements are mutually beneficial to buyers and sellers. Not only do sellers buy themselves time to find their new home, they collect proceeds from the sale of their current one, which can be used to help fund their new home purchase when the time comes. The money collected from sellers’ rent payments is an obvious bonus for buyers. And in a competitive market, making an offer that gives the seller flexibility in their moving timeline may help it stand out amongst the competition.

A real estate agent tours a home with two buyers. They have a brief meeting in the living room where the agent shows them paperwork for the home purchase.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FG Trade

Joint Tenancy

When two or more people purchase a property together, Joint Tenancy with Right of Survivorship (JTWROS) requires that all co-buyers hold an equal interest in the property and that they all come into ownership through the same title at the same time. If one co-owner dies, ownership passes to the other co-owner—this is known as Right of Survivorship.

This form of co-buying a home presents an opportunity to prospective home buyers who may not yet have the means to purchase a home on their own by combining their buying power with that of their co-buyer. However, entering a real estate transaction with a co-buyer means that you’re financially tied together, which opens the door for added risk.

Tenancy In Common

When co-buyers hold a title as tenants in common, shares of the property can be divided equally or unequally. But even with a disparity in ownership percentage, no one owner may claim sole ownership of the property. When a tenant in common passes away, their ownership is bequeathed to their designated heir.

Tenancy In Severalty

Unlike Joint Tenancy and Tenancy in Common, Tenancy in Severalty represents an agreement in which one individual, corporation, or entity owns the property and does not share ownership with anyone.