Market News • Matthew Gardner • April 28, 2022

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

by Gary Peterson

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. With home prices continuing to defy gravity, mortgage rates spiking, the Fed raising interest rates significantly, a yield curve that is just keeping its nose above water, and some becoming vocal about the possibility that we are going to enter a recession sooner rather than later, it’s not at all surprising that many of you have been asking me whether the housing market is going to pull back significantly, and a few of you have asked whether we aren’t in some sort of “bubble” again.

Because this topic appears to be giving many of you heartburn, I decided that it’s a good time to reflect on where the housing market is today and give you my thoughts on the impact of rising mortgage rates on what has been an historically hot market.

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

Home Sale Prices

As usual, a little perspective. Between 1990 and the pre-bubble peak in 2006, home prices rose by 142%, which was a pretty impressive annual increase of 5.6% over a 16 1/2-year period. When the market crashed, prices dropped by 33%, but from the 2012 low to today, prices have risen by 131%, or at an even faster annual rate of 8.6% over a shorter period of time—10 years.

You may think that prices rising at an annual rate that exceeds the pace seen before the market crash is what has some brokers and home buyers concerned, but that really isn’t what has many people scared. It’s this.

Mortgage Rates in 2022

At the start of 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just a little above 3%. But, over a brief 15-week period, they have skyrocketed to 5%. This has led some to worry that the market is about to implode. Of course, nobody can say that the run-up in home prices hasn’t been phenomenal over the past few years, and it’s certainly human nature to think that “what goes up, must come down,” but is there really any reason to panic? I think not, and to explain my reasoning, let’s look back in time to periods when rates rose significantly and see how increasing mortgage rates impacted the marketplace.

Housing and Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates

This table shows seven periods over the past 30 years when mortgage rates rose significantly. On average, rates trended higher for just over a year before pulling back, and the average increase was 1.4%. But now look at how it impacted home prices: it really didn’t. On average, during these periods of rising financing costs, home prices still rose by just over 5%. Clearly, not what some might have expected. But there were some negatives from mortgage rates trending higher, and these came in the form of lower sales in all but one period and new housing starts also pulled back.

So, if history is any indicator, the impact of the current jump in mortgage rates is likely to be seen in the form of lower transactions rather than lower prices. And this makes sense. Although rising financing costs puts additional pressure on housing affordability, what people don’t appear to think about is that mortgage rates actually tend to rise during periods of economic prosperity. And what does a flourishing economy bring? That’s right. Rising wages. Increasing incomes can certainly offset at least some of the impacts of rising mortgage rates.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 1/3

To try and explain this, I’m using the median US sale price in February of this year, assuming a 20% down payment and the mortgage rate of 4%. And you can see that the monthly P&I payment would be $1,365. But as mortgage rates rise, and if buyers wanted to keep the same monthly payment, then they would have to buy a cheaper home. Using a rate of 5%, a buyer could afford a home that was 9% cheaper if they wanted to keep the payment the same as it would have been if rates were still at 4%.

But, as I mentioned earlier, an expanding economy brings higher wages, and this is being felt today more than usual, given the worker shortage that exists and businesses having to raise compensation. Average weekly wages have risen by over five-and-a-half percent over the past year—well above the pre-pandemic average of two-and-a-half percent. Although increasing incomes would not totally offset rising mortgage rates, it does have an impact.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 2/3

To demonstrate this, let’s use the U.S. average household income of $70,611. Assuming that they’ve put aside 20% of their gross income for a down payment, they could afford a home priced just under $360,000 if mortgage rates were at 4%. As rates rise—and assuming that their income doesn’t—their buying power is reduced by over 10%, or just over $38,000.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 3/3

But if we believe that incomes will rise, then the picture looks very different. Assuming wages rise by 6%, their buying power drops by just 5% if rates rose from 4% to 5%, or a bit less than $19,000.

Although rates have risen dramatically in a short period, because they started from an historic low, the overall impacts are not yet very significant. If history is any indicator, mortgage rates increasing are likely to have a more significant impact on sales, but a far smaller impact on prices.

But there are other factors that come into play, too. Here I’m talking about demand. The only time since 1968 that home prices have dropped on an annualized basis was in 2007 through 2009 and in 2011, and this was due to a massive increase in the supply of homes for sale. When supply exceeds demand, prices drop.

So, how is it different this time around? Well, we know that the supply glut that we saw starting to build in mid-2006 was mainly not just because households were getting mortgages that, quite frankly, they should never have gotten in the first place, but a very large share held adjustable rate mortgages which, when the fixed interest rate floated, they found themselves faced with payments that they could not afford. Many homeowners either listed their homes for sale or simply walked away.

Although it’s true that over the past two or so months more buyers have started taking ARMs as rates rose, it’s not only a far smaller share than we saw before the bubble burst, but down payments and credit quality remained far higher than we saw back then.

So, if we aren’t faced with a surge of inventory, I simply don’t see any reason why the market will see prices pull back significantly. But even if we do see listing activity increase, I still anticipate that there will be more than enough demand from would-be buyers. I say this for several reasons, the first of which is inflation.

What a lot of people aren’t talking about is the proven fact that owning real estate is a significant hedge against rising inflation. You see, most buyers have a mortgage, and a vast majority use fixed-rate financing. This is the hedge because even as consumer prices are rising, a homeowner’s monthly payments aren’t. They remain static and, more than that, their monthly payments actually become lower over time as the value of the dollar diminishes. Simply put, the value of a dollar in—let’s say 2025—will be lower than the value of a dollar today.

But this isn’t the only reason that inflation can actually stimulate the housing market. Home prices historically have grown at a faster pace than inflation.

Hedge Against Inflation

This chart looks at the annual change in total CPI going back to 1969. Now let’s overlay the annual change in median U.S. home prices over the same time period. Other than when home prices crashed with the bursting of the housing bubble, for more than fifty years home price growth has outpaced inflation. And this means we are offsetting high consumer prices because home values are increasing at an even faster rate.

But inflation has additional impacts on buyers. Now I’m talking about savings. As we all know, the interest paid on savings today is pretty abysmal. In fact, the best money market accounts I could find were offering interest rates between 0.5% and 0.7%. And given that this is significantly below the rate of inflation, it means that dollars saved continue to be worth less and less over time while inflation remains hot.

Now, rather than watching their money drop in value because of rising prices, it’s natural that households would look to put their cash to work by investing in assets where the return is above the rate of inflation—meaning that their money is no longer losing value—and where better place to put it than into a home.

Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation

So, the bottom line here is that inflation supports demand from home buyers because:

Most are borrowing at a fixed rate that will not be impacted by rising inflation
Monthly payments are fixed, and these payments going forward become lower as incomes rise, unlike renters out there who continue to see their monthly housing costs increase
With inflation at a level not seen since the early 1980s, borrowers facing 5% mortgage rates are still getting an amazing deal. In fact, by my calculations, mortgage rates would have to break above 7% to significantly slow demand, which I find highly unlikely, and
If history holds true, home price appreciation will continue to outpace inflation

Demand appears to still be robust, and supply remains anemic. Although off the all-time low inventory levels we saw in January, the number of homes for sale in March was the lowest of any March since record keeping began in the early 1980’s.

But even though I’m not worried about the impact of rates rising on the market in general, I do worry about first-time buyers. These are households who have never seen mortgage rates above 5% and they just don’t know how to deal with it! Remember that the last time the 30-year fixed averaged more than 5% for a month was back in March of 2010!

And given the fact that these young would-be home buyers have not benefited from rising home prices as existing homeowners have, as well as the fact that they are faced with soaring rents, making it harder for them to save up for a down payment on their first home, many are in a rather tight spot and it’s likely that rising rates will lower their share of the market.

So, the bottom line as far as I am concerned is that mortgage rates normalizing should not lead you to feel any sort of panic, and that current rates are highly unlikely to be the cause of a market correction.

And I will leave you with this one thought. If you agree with me that a systemic drop in home prices has to be caused by a significant increase in supply, and that buyers who are currently taking out adjustable-rate mortgages are more qualified, and therefore able to manage to refinance their homes when rates do revert at some point in the future, then what will cause listings to rise to a point that can negatively impact prices?

It’s true that a significant increase in new home development might cause this, but that is unlikely. And as far as existing owners are concerned, I worry far more about a prolonged lack of inventory. I say this for one very simple reason and that is because a vast majority off homeowners either purchased when mortgage rates were at or near their historic lows, or they refinanced their current homes when rates dropped.

And this could be the biggest problem for the market. Even if rates don’t rise at all from current levels, I question how many owners would think about selling if they were to lose the historically low mortgage rates that they have locked into. It is quite possible that for this one reason, we may experience a tight housing market for several more years.

Windermere Community • April 25, 2022

Windermere Foundation Sets Sights on $50 Million in Total Donations

by Gary Peterson

Two women and a man hold up a check for $5,000.

In honor of Windermere’s 50^th anniversary, the Windermere Foundation has set a goal to reach $50 million in total donations raised by the end of 2022. At the end of last year, the Foundation surpassed $46 million in total donations, leaving a nearly $4 million gap to eclipse the $50 million mark. Through the fundraising efforts of offices across the Windermere footprint, 2022 is off to a strong start. Here are a few highlights from early 2022.

Windermere Northern Colorado

Windermere Northern Colorado has burst out the gate this year, organizing multiple fundraising events and supporting multiple local organizations throughout the early months of 2022. ChildSafe, based in Fort Collins, CO, provides children with responsive treatment, education, and recovery from child abuse. The Windermere office has supported ChildSafe in the past and wanted to continue to do so in 2022, donating $10,000 to them in February to help heal the trauma experienced by local victims of child abuse. In March, the office directed its giving efforts to the Weld County School District, with the goal of helping local children and families struggling with homelessness. Windermere Northern Colorado’s donation of $5,000 allowed the school district to purchase grocery gift cards for local families and students in need.

Pictured left to right: Weld RE-4 School District Director of Exceptional Student Services JonPaul Burden, Meaghan Nicholl, Elizabeth Dolton.

Windermere Utah

For the agents, owners, and staff at Windermere Utah, The Make-A-Wish Foundation has a special place in their hearts. Supporting children in need in their community has been a focal point of the office’s giving over the years, so when looking to kickstart their 2022 giving, Make-A-Wish was a natural fit. The office donated $5,000, which will go toward the organization’s ability to grant another child’s wish.

Windermere Coast Offices (Oregon)

The Windermere Coast Offices of Gearhart and Cannon Beach have made it a point to support the aspirations and success of women in their community. They’ve been loyal supporters of the Astoria, OR branch of the American Association of University Women (AAUW) since learning about the organization years ago. AAUW provides scholarships for women who may not otherwise have the resources to pursue and succeed in their educational and vocational goals.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

Selling • April 18, 2022

How to Prepare for an Open House

by Gary Peterson

A real estate agent shows a new home to a young man and woman.

To successfully sell your home, you need to attract buyers. This is why open houses are an integral part of the selling process: they allow buyers to experience the property for themselves and envision what life will look like in their new home. To prepare for an open house, you’ll need to work closely with your agent. They can advise you on what buyers in your area are looking for to increase your chances of selling your home.

How to Prepare for an Open House

The earlier you can begin prepping your home for an open house, the better, since getting it in prime showing condition will take time. Start by decluttering and organizing room by room. To truly get your home sparkling clean, you can’t miss those hard-to-reach areas like the baseboards, under your furniture, and your appliances.

To best position your home to sell, consider hiring a professional stager. A well-staged home helps it appeal to the widest possible array of potential buyers, not only for in-person showings, but in online photos as well. Professional staging is equal parts science and art. Stagers are experts in depersonalizing a home while maintaining its stylistic qualities to give buyers the opportunity to imagine the space for their own use. It isn’t just about psychology, though. Staging is a high-ROI expenditure that can add real value to your home.

It may feel counterintuitive, but your absence can be your greatest asset in making your open houses successful. Buyers will often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller as they tour, which will limit their ability to envision their own lives in the home and get excited about the prospect of ownership. Accordingly, you may need to arrange for temporary accommodations during the times your home is being shown. It’s helpful to solidify these plans several weeks in advance to avoid an eleventh-hour scramble.

Working with Your Agent

Your agent will be your greatest asset in preparing for open houses. They are experts in understanding how to effectively market your home and how the local market conditions will impact their marketing plan. Once you know it’s time to sell, they’ll analyze data to accurately price the property and keep it competitive in the current market. They’ll also work with you to schedule open houses at the times when buyers are maximally available and actively searching for listings.

Your agent will also help you to stay safe while selling your home. The reality of open houses is that you’re opening your doors to an influx of unfamiliar faces, and it’s worth it to take a few safety precautions beforehand. Perform a thorough walkthrough of your home with your agent to make sure all valuable belongings, medications, family heirlooms, and other important items have been properly secured and/or removed. Once you’ve given your home a clean sweep, discuss your process for screening potential buyers.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • April 4, 2022

Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate

by Gary Peterson

Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s chief economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew. This month we’re going to take a look at Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies themselves and how both may impact home buyers and sellers in the future.

But before we dive into the potential impacts of cryptocurrency on the residential housing market, I must preface this by saying that the very word “crypto” is one that certainly divides people. Some see it as revolutionary, a tangible asset that will take over one day as the de-facto global currency, while others believe it to be unsustainable and ultimately valueless. And there are even some who firmly believe that it’s nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.

Now, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion, and I will refrain from offering my own view on the currencies themselves, but, although still in its infancy, it continues to evolve and is garnering significant interest from individuals and large corporations alike.

Why are corporations interested, you ask? Well, a recent report from Crypto.com¹ put the number of people around the globe who own some form of cryptocurrency at more than 295 million and they are forecasting this number to explode this year and hit the 1 billion mark! And the value of all these currencies today? As of March 14, the combined value of all cryptocurrencies was 1.74 trillion dollars² with the largest, Bitcoin, valued at almost 740 billion dollars. So, it should not be a surprise to see many mainstream companies across multiple industry sectors start to introduce ways to accept crypto as payment for goods and services.

Companies moving into this space include AMC movie Theaters³ who recently announced their plan to accept coins by the end of this year. Fintech companies like Paypal and Square are also betting on crypto by allowing users to buy currency on their platforms. And, unsurprising to most, Tesla is also interested, but have yet to confirm whether they will accept coins as payment for their vehicles or not.

With cryptocurrencies now gaining traction in mainstream businesses, the housing sector has started to take an interest too with the emergence of companies like Propy, whose goal is to totally automate the home sales process by introducing Blockchain based technology to allow transactions to occur entirely online using smart contracts. Other companies are figuring out how to use blockchain technology to grow the “fractional-ownership” segment of the housing market.

But when it comes to simply buying a house—well that is an entirely different situation. Of course, a home buyer could easily cash out the Crypto they have and use those funds for a down payment, or even to buy a house outright. But we don’t see more of this today as they understand selling their currency is a taxable event and, more than likely, taxes owed will hit their balance sheets pretty hard. And knowing that this is a real issue in the market, it should come as no surprise that a company has come up with a plan to overcome what is seen as one of the biggest obstacles to using digital currency for home buying.

Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate

And they are Milo, who claim to offer the world’s first “crypto-mortgage”. Essentially, they will allow borrowers to use Bitcoin—but only Bitcoin as of right now—as collateral for a 30-year mortgage.

How this works is pretty simple. All buyers have to do is to “pledge” their coins on a one-for-one basis. Simply put, someone looking for a $500,000 mortgage would have to put up $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. This way, they don’t actually have to sell their coins, so there are no tax implications. And instead of going through a FICO credit check and showing proof of income to evaluate a borrower’s creditworthiness, Milo evaluates them based on their crypto wealth as well as the value of the property they are hoping to buy.

And in exchange for locking up their crypto, borrowers get a 30-year mortgage for their home purchase can also make their mortgage payments via traditional currency or Bitcoin. But there are differences between this and a traditional mortgage. First off is the interest rate. It currently ranges anywhere from 5 to 8% depending on the loan-to-value ratio. This is higher than the rate they could get today.

And the interest rate is not fixed, but variable, and based on the prevailing price of Bitcoin. The rate can go up or down depending on the value of the Bitcoin they have pledged, and this mortgage rate will be adjusted every year. Interestingly, if the price of Bitcoin goes up, borrowers can actually take back some of their crypto once a year. If the price of Bitcoin goes down, they may be asked to provide more crypto as collateral.

And finally, when the buyer sells, on closing Milo is paid back in U.S. dollars, and then the seller gets the Bitcoins they used for collateral back, along with the profit made on the sale.

I think that this is certainly an interesting play in the ownership housing sector and, although still in its infancy, looks to meet the needs of crypto owners who don’t want to face the tax obligation that would occur if they were to sell their coins to buy a home. Now, I must make clear that Windermere is certainly not endorsing Milo. In fact, I personally have concerns about the program given how volatile cryptocurrencies are.

You see, it is possible that users may be caught out by the value of their Bitcoin dropping significantly and, if this occurs at or around their anniversary date, it could significantly raise the interest rate—and therefore the monthly payment—on that loan, and if the price drops too far, then they may have to go through what is, in essence, a margin call, where they will have to submit more funds to the lender to bring them back to a point where equity in the home combined with the value of the Bitcoin covers the loan itself.

And I would add that if for some reason the buyer has to sell the home within the first three years⁴ of purchase there are pre-payment penalties that will be incurred. All in all, it is an interesting model, but it is still in its infancy. As always, time will tell how well it gets adopted.

The bottom line for me is that the likelihood of Cryptocurrency revolutionizing the way we buy homes from a finance perspective is still several years away, but after that, who knows! Something that does have the capacity to be adopted into the mainstream far quicker is the blockchain technology itself. I personally see title insurance as a segment that could benefit significantly and may well adopt this tech sooner than others.

With title insurance companies responsible for verifying and ensuring that a buyer or lender (depending on the type of title insurance) gets either clean ownership or a lien position in the land in question, Blockchain could change many aspects of how these processes are carried out. Here are some of the benefits:

The Potential Benefits of Blockchain Technology in Real Estate

Security. More than 25 percent of title reports (alta.org) detail some form of defect to the title itself, but the ability of blockchain to immediately detect erroneous or potentially fraudulent information can significantly help to support the reliability of the records, therefore making the job of title insurance companies much more straightforward.

And then there’s smart contracts, which are actually a form of e-closing that is already beginning to be embraced by some in the industry. This technology makes the transfer of ownership almost seamless. Literally, it would take just a few clicks of a mouse. And this is also a massive benefit for the industry as the closing process would also change dramatically and become far more effortless and less time consuming than today’s standard means of closing on a home purchase.

And finally, record-keeping. While fraud and tampering are huge concerns for title companies, blockchain could all but eliminate these instances within ownership records. And, as it would convert land records to a distributed ledger, it cannot be altered within the blockchain itself, therefore making it safe in perpetuity. Blockchain, by design, prevents bad information from disrupting the chain and any attempt to tamper with it can be easily detected and therefore avoided. This is a massive upgrade from the county ledger that title insurance companies find themselves working with today.

No one can deny that Blockchain and cryptocurrencies, while still relatively new, do not appear to be just a flash in the pan. As we have discussed today, a number of companies continue to make inroads into the real estate world. Will some fail? Of course. But others will succeed. So, while still in its infancy, we should all have some sort of understanding of its potential to be a disruptor in the housing space in the future.

It’s my own personal belief that the Blockchain tech itself will be the thing that gets adopted by the real estate world faster than the rise of crypto as a way to buy or finance a home but, whatever your thoughts on this topic are, I think that it is highly unlikely that we will see it simply fade away over time.

As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month. Bye now.

References:

Living • March 20, 2022

How to Find the Right Lighting for Your Home

by Gary Peterson

A well-lit open kitchen and dining room area.

The right lighting can give your home the quality and mood you’re looking to achieve. Knowing about the different temperatures of light, lighting types, and how to blend lighting elements will help you narrow down your choices and find the best fixtures for your home.

How to Find the Right Lighting for Your Home

Before taking a trip to the hardware or lighting store, it’s worth your time to understand the different types of lighting and how they complement each other to fill the large surface areas of your home while spotlighting the nooks and crannies. Ambient lighting, accent lighting, and task lighting are the three basic lighting types that cover the spectrum of illuminating a home.

Ambient Lighting

Ambient light is what fills a room. Also known as “general light,” this is the primary light source for the spaces in your home. When selecting your ambient lights, know that your choice in color will play a significant role in the atmosphere of that room, since this type of lighting is so widely distributed.

Accent Lighting

Accent lighting has a smaller footprint than ambient lighting. It is meant to direct focus and attention to a specific spot. By pulling the eye toward this spot lit area, it allows you to highlight décor and design pieces, such as picture frames and artwork, houseplants, or small sculptures.

Task Lighting

It’s all in the name when it comes to task lighting. This form of lighting exists to help you perform tasks. Whether it’s cooking, working on arts and crafts, tinkering away at a desk, or tending to your indoor garden, having task lighting in place will ensure that you’re able to see while you work. Feel free to experiment with closeup light sources when installing task lighting to provide the maximum attention to detail while you work. Task lighting fixtures can be as simple as a floor lamp or desk lamp.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: TG23

Different Temperatures of Light

There are three basic light temperatures: warm, cool, and neutral. Warm light creates a cozy, comfortable feeling, and functions best in rooms where you plan to kick back and relax, such as the bedroom or the living room. Cold light encourages attention to detail, and therefore works well in places like the kitchen and bathroom. Neutral light sits between warm and cold light but functions like cold light in that it can help you focus on the task at hand in the rooms where it’s used. Places like the garage, home office, or bonus/utility rooms are all fitting homes for neutral light.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: imaginima

Different Lighting Fixtures

After you’ve researched the different types of lighting and decided which temperatures fit best throughout your home, it’s time to pick your fixtures.

Chandeliers

Chandeliers have been around for centuries and they are still popular today. Due to their formal nature, they can set the stage for dining rooms and foyers alike with traditional style. Chandeliers typically give off lots of light, making them perfect for filling larger spaces.

Surface Lights

Surface lights sit flush against the wall where they are installed. These lights are typically used in smaller areas such as hallways.

Pendant Lights

Pendant lights are commonly found in the kitchen or the dining room. Suspended from the ceiling, pendant lights come in a variety of styles, but often appear as a linear series of lights that run the length of a table or slab underneath them.

Recessed Lights

Recessed lights sits inside the wall and provide a level distribution of illumination. These lights are a popular choice for vaulted ceilings, where you’ll usually see them spaced evenly apart to fill the room with ambient light.

Design • March 7, 2022

What is Spanish Style Architecture?

by Gary Peterson

The front exterior of a Spanish colonial style home with green grass and several plants in the flower beds.

The Spanish style of home design and the architecture from which it originates goes by many names but is commonly known as “Spanish Eclectic” or “Spanish Revival.” This distinct style has a long history that has helped to shape the residential aesthetic of certain parts of the United States, predominantly the Southwest. By digging into the history and design elements of this unique look, we can understand a bit more about why these homes are so special.

Spanish Eclectic

The Spanish Eclectic aesthetic is an amalgam of Native American, Mexican, and Spanish missionary styles. The first appearances of this housing style on American soil trace back to the days of the earliest Spanish settlers as they began to build out their dwellings. These homes were built with the materials that have become defined by their appearance: adobe, stucco, and clay. In this way, Spanish Eclectic shares some similarities with the Mediterranean style of architecture. Over time, this style saw periods of revival, during which construction of these homes experienced an uptick. Throughout these revival periods, additional features were added to the homes to accommodate the needs of modern living at the time.

The front exterior of an orange-tinted Spanish colonial style home with plants and trees in the front yard.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: felixmizioznikov

What is Spanish style architecture?

The Spanish Eclectic style has several distinct characteristics in both its interior and exterior design. The thick stucco walls provide the backdrop for their unique look, but also help to keep the home cool during hot days and insulated at night. These homes typically have low-pitched terracotta roofs, exposed wooden support beams, and arched entryways and corridors, reflecting the features of their missionary origins.

Additional design details include wrought iron, colorful tile, and small windows. Though they may not be present in every Spanish Eclectic home due to limited space, courtyards are a common feature of this house style. You’ll often see a courtyard in the center of the home for a plaza-like arrangement, on the side of the home, or in the back.

Market News • Market Updates • Matthew Gardner • March 7, 2022

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

by Gary Peterson

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

Hello there. I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Welcome to the latest episode of Monday with Matthew.

Over the past several weeks I’ve gotten a lot of messages from you wanting me to discuss the spike in mortgage rates that followed comments by the Federal Reserve, but also asking me if there will be any impacts to the housing market following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. This is clearly a hot topic right now, so today we are going to take a look at how these events have impacted mortgage rates, but also look at how this may have changed my mortgage rate outlook for 2022. So, let’s get to it.

Weekly Mortgage Rates

Here is a chart that shows how rates have moved over the past two years or so using Freddie Mac’s average weekly rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage. You’ll see that rates were falling in early 2020, but when COVID-19 was announced as a pandemic they spiked, but almost immediately the Fed announced their support for the economy by implementing a broad array of actions to keep credit flowing and limit the economic damage that the pandemic would likely create. And part of that support included large purchases of U.S. government and mortgage-backed securities. With the Fed as a major buyer of mortgage securities, rates dropped ending 2020 at a level never seen in the more than 50 years that the 30-year mortgage has been with us.

In early 2021, rates started to rise again as the country became more confident that the pandemic was coming under control, but all that changed with the rise the Delta variant of COVID-19 which pushed rates lower through mid-summer. As we again started to believe that COVID was under control and a booster shot became available, you’ll see rates resumed their upward trend in August.

What has everyone worried today is this spike that really took off at the end of last year. A jump of almost a full percentage point in just eight short weeks understandably has a lot of agents, buyers, and sellers, concerned about what impacts this might have on what has been a remarkably buoyant housing market. Now, rates rising so quickly was unusual, but not unprecedented. If you really wanted to be scared, I’d regale you with stories from 1980 when mortgage rates jumped by over 3.5% in less than eight weeks.

Anyway, before we really dig into this topic, some of you may be thinking to yourselves that my numbers have to be wrong because they differ from the rates you have been looking at. This is due to the fact that the Freddie Mac survey methodology is different from other rate surveys but, even though their rates may not match the ones you’ve been seeing from other data providers, the trend is still consistent.

So, let’s chat for a bit about what caused the spike in rates. You know, it’s always good to have a villain in any story and the primary but certainly not sole culprit responsible for the jump in rates is—you guessed it—the Federal Reserve.

As I mentioned earlier, the Fed was the biggest buyer of pools of home loans (otherwise known as mortgage-backed securities) as we moved through the pandemic, but last December they announced an end to what had been an era of easy money by winding down these purchases in order to lay the groundwork for shrinking their 2.7 trillion—yes I said “trillion”—dollar stockpile of MBS paper they had built up. This decision to move from “quantitative easing” to “quantitative tightening” so rapidly had an almost immediate impact on mortgage rates simply because the market was going to lose its biggest buyer of mortgage bonds.

Immediately on the heels of their announcement, bond sellers raised the interest rate on their bond offerings to try and find buyers other than the Fed, so lenders raised the rates on mortgages housed within these bond offerings. Finally, mortgage brokers moved quickly to raise the rates that they were quoting to the public. The result of all this was that rates leapt. Although we know that the primary party responsible for rates rising was the Fed, there were other players too, and here I am talking about inflation—and as you are no doubt aware—it too started to spike at the beginning of this year and now stands at a level not seen since 1982. And if you’re wondering why inflation is important. Well, high inflation is a disincentive to bond buyers because if the rate of return, or interest on mortgage bonds, is lower than inflation, investors lose interest pretty quickly.

So, we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation, but what about Russia? Well, their invasion of the Ukraine on February 24 has certainly influenced mortgage rates, but maybe not in the way you might expect. In general, when there’s any sort of global or national geopolitical event, investors tend to gravitate to safety, and this invariably means a shift out of equities and into bonds.

So you would be correct is thinking that at face value Russia was actually responsible for the tiny drop in rates we saw following the invasion, and also the more significant drop we saw last week when the market saw the biggest two-day drop in rates in over a decade. But before you start to think that rates are headed back to where they were a year ago, I’ve got some bad news for you. That is almost guaranteed not to happen.

Given what we know today, the terrible conflict in Eastern Europe is highly unlikely to push rates back down to where they were at the start of this year, but they will—at least for now—act as a headwind to rates continuing to head higher at the pace we have seen over recent weeks. That will continue until the conflict is hopefully peaceably concluded. And although the Ukraine situation is unlikely to have any significant impact up or down on mortgage rates, there are some indirect impacts which could negatively hit the housing market. Now I’m talking about oil.

Russia is the third largest energy producer in the world and an already tight global oil supply could get even tighter following newly announced financial sanctions on Russia. A barrel of oil has jumped by almost $20 to $109 a barrel since the start of the occupation and, if the occupation is sustained, and Russia is faced with even greater sanctions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price of gas rise by between 20 and 40 cents a gallon. And it’s this, in concert with already high inflation, which will directly hit consumers wallets and this itself could certainly impact mortgage borrowing. So we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation and we can blame Russia for the jump in rates, but are the rates you are seeing today really something to lose sleep over? I actually don’t think so. At least not yet.

Even with mortgage rates where they are today, I look at them and think to myself that they are still exceptionally low by historic standards and that there really is no need for panic. But let me explain my thinking to you. To do this, we will take a look at the impact of rising mortgage rates, not as it relates to buyers’ ability to finance a home purchase, but on how it impacts their monthly payments.

Hypothetical Home Purchase

For this example, we’ll use the peak sale price for a single-family home in America, which was just over $370,000 back in June of last year. And to finance this purchase, a buyer was lucky enough to lock in the lowest mortgage rate for that month at 2.96%. Assuming that they put 20% down, and are paying the U.S. average homeowners insurance premium and average property taxes a buyer closing on that home in June of last year would have a monthly payment of $1,682.

Now, what if a buyer had bought the exact same house but in February of this year? Well, the average rate for the third week of February was 4.06%—a big jump from last June—and higher mortgage rates would have increased their payment to $1,864. What does this all mean? Well, a jump of over a full percentage point means that the monthly payment is more, but only a relatively modest $182. So, even though rates have risen by almost a full percentage point, the increase in payments was, I think you’ll agree, relatively nominal.

But what if rates had risen to 5%? Well, that would be a very different picture with payments increasing by a far more significant $348. Of course, this is a very simplistic way of looking at it as I have not included any other debt payments that a buyer may have, but I hope that it does demonstrate that, even though mortgage rates are certainly significantly higher than they were last summer, because we started from such a low basis, monthly payments have seen a relatively modest increase. The bottom line is that rates were never going to hold at the record lows we have seen, and we need to just accept the fact that they will continue trending higher as we move through the year but are yet at a level that suggests impending doom for the housing arena. So, where do I think that rates will be by the end of this year? Well, here is my very latest forecast for the rest of this year.

Mortgage Rates Forecast

Given all we know in respect to the Fed and the current situation in Ukraine, my model suggests a significant jump in the first quarter, but then the pace of increase slows significantly and we will end this year at a rate that is almost half a percentage point above the forecast I offered at the start of the year.

Forecasts From Various Analysts

Of course, this is the opinion of just one economist, so I thought it would be useful for you to see what others are thinking. And amazingly enough, most of us—at least for now—are still in a pretty tight range regarding our expectations for the average rate in the 4^th quarter of 2022 with Fannie Mae at the low end of the spectrum and the Mortgage Bankers Association at the high end.

I honestly believe that, all things being equal, the impact of higher mortgage rates is unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. market this year and, even with rates rising, the market will remain tight in terms of supply and will continue to favor home sellers. That said, once we break above 4.5%, I would expect to see the increased cost of financing having a greater impact on not just on demand but on price growth, too.

And if you are wondering why I am so sure about this, it’s simply because we saw the exact same situation in 2018 when rates rose to 4.9% and we saw a palpable pull back in sales; which dropped from an annual rate of 5.4 million to 5 million units and the pace of price growth dropped from 5.9% to 3.3%. Now, I don’t see rates getting close to 5% for quite some time and therefore still expect demand to remain robust—off the all-time highs we have seen—but still solid given demographically-driven demand as well as increasing demand from buyers trying to find a new home before rates much further.

Of course, the impact of rates rising will not be felt equally across all markets. Many areas, and especially in coastal States, have seen home values skyrocket to levels that are well above the national average. Although incomes are generally higher in these markets, buyers in more expensive areas will feel more pain from higher financing costs.

And there you have it. I hope that today’s chat has not only given you some additional tools to use in your day-to-day business but has also given you enough information to hopefully ease some of the worry that many of you are feeling right now. As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month.

Buyers • Selling • February 14, 2022

What Is a Bridge Loan?

by Gary Peterson

A real estate agent talks to her client at her computer.

With so much in flux during the period between selling a home and buying a new one, short-term financing can provide some calm among the storm. With the fate of two properties up in the air, those who are selling a home will often look to secure a bridge loan to bridge the gap between the sale of their existing home and the purchase of a new one. So, is a bridge loan right for you? The following information is meant to help you decide whether it is a fitting solution.

What is a bridge loan?

Bridge loans have shorter terms—generally up to one year—than mortgages and often come with higher interest rates. Bridge loans allow buyers to borrow a portion of the equity in real estate they already own (usually their current primary residence) to use as a down payment on the purchase of a new residence. Borrowers will commonly package the two loans together, in which they borrow the difference between the amount they owe on their current home and a percentage of the home’s value (often 75% or 80%). Just like a home equity loan, a home equity line of credit (HELOC), or a mortgage, bridge loans are secured by your current home as collateral.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: Natee Meepian

Bridge Loans: Pros

Once your home sells, you can use the proceeds to pay off the bridge loan, leaving you with only the mortgage for your new home.
Bridge loans can get you cash quickly to expedite the transition from one house to another.
With a bridge loan, you can expect a shorter application and loan-approval process than a typical mortgage.
A bridge loan offers you the opportunity to buy a new house before your current one sells. As a buyer, this allows you to make a contingency-free offer on a new house, meaning you can still make the purchase without having to sell your current home first. This can be a useful resource in a seller’s market, where sellers may view an offer without contingencies as favorable amongst the competition.

Bridge Loans: Cons

If your home doesn’t sell in the allotted term, you’ll be left with making payments on your current home’s mortgage, your new home’s mortgage, and the bridge loan.
Bridge loans usually come with higher interest rates than a typical mortgage and come with their own set of costs, including interest, as well as legal and administrative fees.
Having a low debt-to-income ratio, a solid credit score, and a considerable amount of equity in your current home are all required to secure a bridge loan, so qualifying may be out of reach for some homeowners.

Alternatives to Bridge Loans

Home equity loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and personal loans are all viable alternatives to bridge loans that can still create a pathway to purchasing your new home. Be sure to compare the costs associated with each line of financing before making your decision.

Market News • Market Updates • Matthew Gardner • February 10, 2022

Q4 2021 Utah Real Estate Market Update

by Gary Peterson

Q4 2021 Utah Real Estate Market Update

by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Utah closed 2021 strongly with solid employment gains and an annual growth rate of 4.7%. It has been almost a year since the state recovered all the jobs lost due to the pandemic—a remarkable statistic. Even more impressive is that the employment level is now more than 61,000 jobs higher than before COVID-19 hit. The counties covered by this report have added almost 50,000 new jobs over the past year, representing a growth rate of 3.8%. Such robust growth has driven the unemployment rate down to just 2.1%, a level not seen since the Labor Department started keeping records back in 1976. Utah’s economic growth continues to impress. I believe it could be even better if the number of people in the workforce was rising significantly, which isn’t the case. But all in all, the employment picture is extremely positive.

UTAH HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of 2021, 9,158 homes sold, representing a 13.2% drop from a year ago and 11.6% lower than in the third quarter.

❱ Year-over-year, sales dropped in all areas except for Morgan County. Sales slowed in all counties other than Weber compared to the third quarter of 2021.

❱ The drop in sales between the third and fourth quarters doesn’t concern me and can be attributed to seasonal factors. Lower sales compared to a year ago may be due to the number of homes for sale, which was 11.2% lower than in the same quarter of 2020.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were down 4% relative to the third quarter, suggesting that sales in the first quarter of 2022 may not rise significantly.

UTAH HOME PRICES

❱ Given Utah’s strong economy, it’s not surprising that home prices continue to rise significantly. Year over year, prices rose 17.3% to an average of $602,369. Prices were also .3% higher than in the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Compared to the third quarter, prices rose in Salt Lake, Utah, and Summit counties, but were down in the balance of the market areas.

❱ All areas contained in the report except for Summit and Wasatch counties saw prices rise by double digits. Morgan County’s rise was particularly impressive.

❱ The pace of price growth has slowed, but only very modestly. Whether this was a function of mortgage rates, which started rising in the quarter, is unclear. I expect rates to continue rising as we move through the year, which may have a compressing effect on price growth.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average amount of time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report dropped five days compared to the final quarter of 2020.

❱ Homes sold fastest in Davis County, with all but two counties seeing average time on market drop. Relative to a year ago, the greatest decline in market time was in Summit County, where it took 29 fewer days to sell a home.

❱ During the quarter, it took an average of 28 days to sell a home in the region. Although this is lower than a year ago, it was up 6 days compared to the third quarter of the year.

❱ The modest increase in market time is not very surprising given the frenetic market in 2020. The question is whether the pace of sales will increase as we move into the spring selling season.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Utah’s rock-solid economy has been a major boost to the housing market. Prices continue to increase at a very impressive pace, but we will have to wait and see if this is sustainable given that mortgage rates are expected to continue rising in the coming months.

My current 2022 forecast suggests that, despite a very modest decrease in the pace of price growth compared to 2021, prices will rise by more than 10% in all the counties in this report. A few may even rise by close to 20%.

To say that it is a seller’s market in Utah would be an understatement. In the coming year, I don’t expect the housing supply to satisfy demand, which will cause prices to rise higher even in the face of rising mortgage rates. As such, I have moved the needle a little more toward sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Windermere Community • January 31, 2022

Windermere Real Estate Celebrates 50th Anniversary

by Gary Peterson

A graphic showing WIndermere Real Estate's 50th anniversary.

In honor of our 50th anniversary, Windermere set a goal to reach $50 million in giving and officially announced our third generation of leadership during our 2022 Kick-Off event.

Seattle – On Wednesday, January 26, we hosted a virtual event for our agents, franchise owners, and staff, to kick off 2022 and celebrate our 50^th anniversary. More than 4,400 people attended the virtual event to hear from several speakers, including company founder, John Jacobi, Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and keynote speakers Matthew Ferrara and Candace Doby. Second-generation leaders, OB Jacobi, Jill Jacobi Wood, and Geoff Wood kicked off the event by reflecting on Windermere’s 50-year history and the pride that comes from still being a family-run organization. They also introduced Lucy Wood, daughter of Jill and Geoff, and the third generation to take on a leadership role within our company.

Founded in 1972 by John Jacobi, Windermere started with seven agents in a single office in Seattle, WA. Over the next two decades, Jacobi would grow Windermere into Seattle’s largest real estate brokerage and eventually the largest in the Pacific Northwest. But according to son, OB, his dad never had aspirations of becoming a large company. “My dad’s goal was to build a real estate office where the agents were respected on the same level as other business professionals, so he made it a priority to hire people who were above all else, professional,” said OB Jacobi, adding, “It was because of the quality of the people who joined Windermere that the company began to grow and thrive.”

Fifty years later, Windermere is the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. with over 6,500 agents and 300+ offices in 10 states. Last year we exceeded $43 billion in sales.

During the January 26 event, the second-generation leaders talked about how their dad set out to change the real estate industry. According to son, OB Jacobi, his dad didn’t believe in awards and felt the highest achievement an agent could earn is repeat and referral business from their clients. He also thought it was the responsibility of real estate agents to make their communities a better place to live, and in 1989, through the creation of the Windermere Foundation, pioneered a giving model that is now used by real estate companies around the country.

“My dad and his team came up with an idea that would make it really easy for agents to give back,” said Jill Jacobi Wood. “It was simple but sort of ingenious; every time an agent sold a home, a small donation from their commission would automatically be made to the Windermere Foundation. All that the agents had to do was sign up to donate and we handled the rest.”

Jacobi Wood added that the goal was to create a system that would allow Windermere to make a big difference without being a financial burden on any one person. In its first year (1989), the Windermere Foundation raised $90,000 for low-income and homeless families. In 2021, our network collectively raised over $2.5 million for a total of $46 million in donations. In honor of our 50^th anniversary, the Windermere network has been given a new challenge: to reach $50 million in donations by the end of 2022.

Windermere CEO, Geoff Wood, closed the 50^th anniversary event by saying, “Great companies don’t stagnate or stay the same. They are constantly evolving and looking for ways to improve, grow, and give back. Over the past 50 years we have done just that; here’s to 50 more.”